{"id":1031,"date":"2023-07-27T22:11:31","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T22:11:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%b1%e8%b4%a5%e6%9d%a1%e4%bb%b6\/"},"modified":"2023-07-27T22:11:31","modified_gmt":"2023-07-27T22:11:31","slug":"%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%b1%e8%b4%a5%e6%9d%a1%e4%bb%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%b1%e8%b4%a5%e6%9d%a1%e4%bb%b6\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/strong>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\u6216\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u6bcf\u6b21\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u629b\u786c\u5e01\u3002\u786c\u5e01\u53ea\u80fd\u843d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6b63\u9762\u4e0a\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6b63\u9762\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u547d\u4e2d\u201d\uff0c\u53cd\u9762\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5047\u8bbe\u786c\u5e01\u662f\u516c\u5e73\u7684\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u7ffb\u8f6c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 0.5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u4e2a\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/a>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u662f\u5426\u6ee1\u8db3<strong>\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5fc5\u987b\u81f3\u5c11\u6709 10 \u6b21\u9884\u671f\u6210\u529f\u548c 10 \u6b21\u9884\u671f\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7528\u7b26\u53f7\u5199\u6210\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u9884\u671f\u6210\u529f\u6b21\u6570\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3a 10\uff1a <strong>np \u2265 10<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u9884\u671f\u5931\u8d25\u6b21\u6570\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3a 10\uff1a <strong>n(1-p) \u2265 10<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5176\u4e2d<em>n<\/em>\u662f\u6837\u672c\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c <em>p<\/em>\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a<\/strong>\u6709\u4e9b\u624b\u518c\u53cd\u800c\u8bf4\u53ea\u9700\u8981 5 \u6b21\u9884\u671f\u6210\u529f\u548c 5 \u6b21\u9884\u671f\u5931\u8d25\u5373\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u6001\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c10 \u66f4\u5e38\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a\u68c0\u67e5\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53bf\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u67d0\u9879\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d6 100 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8be2\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u91cf<strong>n = 100<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b<strong>p = 0.56<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = p<\/strong> <strong>+\/- z*\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">p(1-p) \/ n<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\uff1a<\/strong>\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684z\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u91cf<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6b64\u516c\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u7684 z \u503c\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e8c\u9879\u5f0f\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u9a8c\u8bc1\u662f\u5426\u6ee1\u8db3<strong>\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong>\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u68c0\u67e5\u4e00\u4e0b\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6570\u548c\u5931\u8d25\u6570\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3a 10\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6210\u529f\u6b21\u6570\uff1anp = 100*.56 = <strong>56<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5931\u8d25\u6b21\u6570\uff1an(1-p) = 100*(1-.56) = <strong>44<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u90fd\u7b49\u4e8e\u6216\u5927\u4e8e 10\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f7f\u7528\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u9879\u5f0f\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u5fc5\u987b\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7\u603b\u4f53\u89c4\u6a21\u7684 10%\u3002\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e3a 10% \u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u53e6\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u4f7f\u7528\u4e24\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5dee\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4e3a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u521b\u5efa\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u67e5<em>\u4e24\u4e2a<\/em>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6210\u529f\u548c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6570\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3a 10\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u8bd5\u9a8c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\u6216\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u6bcf\u6b21\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002 \u4f2f\u52aa\u5229 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f - \u7edf\u8ba1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\/\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u51e0\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\/\" 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