{"id":1260,"date":"2023-07-27T02:47:50","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T02:47:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%8c%83%e5%9b%b4%e9%99%90%e5%88%b6\/"},"modified":"2023-07-27T02:47:50","modified_gmt":"2023-07-27T02:47:50","slug":"%e8%8c%83%e5%9b%b4%e9%99%90%e5%88%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%8c%83%e5%9b%b4%e9%99%90%e5%88%b6\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8303\u56f4\u9650\u5236\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u5bfb\u6c42\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684<strong>\u65b9\u5411<\/strong>\u3002<em>\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u8fd8\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\uff1f<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684<strong>\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/strong>\u3002<em>\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u53d8\u5316\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u79f0\u4e3a<strong>\u8303\u56f4\u9650\u5236<\/strong>\u3002\u5f53\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u503c<em>\u8303\u56f4<\/em>\u7531\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u53d7\u5230\u9650\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u6d4b\u91cf\u7279\u5b9a\u5b66\u6821\u5b66\u751f\u7684<em>\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4<\/em>\u548c<em>\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9<\/em>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6536\u96c6\u5b66\u6821\u6240\u6709 1,000 \u540d\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0<em>\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4<\/em>\u548c<em>\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9<\/em>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e3a<strong>0.73<\/strong> \u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12432 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/plage-restreinte0.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"453\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5b66\u751f\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8003\u8bd5\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6536\u96c6\u8363\u8a89\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u90fd\u5b66\u4e60\u4e86\u81f3\u5c11 6 \u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u7684<em>\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4<\/em>\u548c<em>\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9<\/em>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6765\u8868\u793a<em>\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u91cf<\/em>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12433 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/plage-restreinte1.png\" alt=\"\u9650\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u793a\u4f8b\" width=\"442\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u653e\u5927<em>\u65f6\u95f4<\/em>\u5927\u4e8e 6 \u7684\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u56fe\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12434 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/plage-restreinte2.png\" alt=\"\u6709\u9650\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u70b9\u4e91\u793a\u4f8b\" width=\"448\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8be5\u56fe\u4e0a\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e3a<strong>0.37<\/strong> \uff0c\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4e8e<strong>0.73<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6536\u96c6\u8363\u8a89\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5b66\u751f\u7684<em>\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4<\/em>\u548c<em>\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9<\/em>\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5047\u8bbe\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5f31\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5bfc\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86<strong>\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8303\u56f4<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u9650\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u793a\u4f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u9650\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1.\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u7814\u7a76<\/strong>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7814\u7a76\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u5426\u6bd4\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8ba1\u5212\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u808c\u8089\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ea\u6536\u96c6\u7cbe\u82f1\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u808c\u8089\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u808c\u8089\u8d28\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u5f88\u7a84\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2.\u4f18\u79c0\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3\u7814\u7a76\u67d0\u4e2a\u8f85\u5bfc\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u6210\u7ee9\u6709\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\uff0c\u6e34\u671b\u63d0\u9ad8\u6210\u7ee9\u5e76\u53c2\u52a0\u8f85\u5bfc\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u6210\u7ee9\u4f18\u5f02\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f85\u5bfc\u9879\u76ee\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0e\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6210\u7ee9\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u8003\u8651\u9650\u5236\u8303\u56f4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u89e3\u91ca\u9650\u5236\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u884c\u65b9\u6cd5\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c<strong>\u6851\u4ee3\u514b\u6848\u4f8b 2\u201d<\/strong> \uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u7531\u5fc3\u7406\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u6851\u4ee3\u514b (Robert L. Thorndike) \u5f00\u53d1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u771f\u5b9e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u771f\u5b9e\u76f8\u5173\u6027 = \u221a(1-(SD <sup>2<\/sup> <sub>y \u9650\u5236<\/sub>-SD <sup>2<\/sup> <sub>y \u65e0\u9650\u5236<\/sub>)) * (1-r <sup>2<\/sup><sub>\u9650\u5236<\/sub>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">SD <sup>2<\/sup><sub>\u9650\u5236 y<\/sub> \uff1a\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf y \u7684\u53ef\u7528\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><sub>\u65e0\u9650\u5236<\/sub>SD <sup>2<\/sup> y\uff1a\u603b\u4f53\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5df2\u77e5\u5e73\u65b9\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">r <sup>2<\/sup><sub>\u53d7\u9650<\/sub>\uff1a\u53ef\u7528\u53d7\u9650\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e8c\u6b21\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5f53\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u53d7\u5230\u8303\u56f4\u9650\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5bf9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u60a8\u5fc5\u987b\u4f30\u8ba1\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u603b\u4f53\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u5bfb\u6c42\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a \u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - 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