{"id":1320,"date":"2023-07-26T21:39:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:39:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%a5%bd%e5%8d%a1\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T21:39:57","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:39:57","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%a5%bd%e5%8d%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%a5%bd%e5%8d%a1\/","title":{"rendered":"Mape \u7684\u826f\u597d\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8861\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f<strong>MAPE<\/strong> \uff0c\u5b83\u4ee3\u8868<strong>\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>MAPE<\/strong> = (1\/n) * \u03a3(|\u5b9e\u9645 \u2013 \u9884\u6d4b| \/ |\u5b9e\u9645|) * 100<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u03a3\u2014\u2014<\/strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u5947\u7279\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u201c\u548c\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\u2014\u2014<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u91cf<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>real\u2014\u2014<\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9884\u671f\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE \u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5e38\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6613\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cMAPE \u503c\u4e3a 8% \u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5dee\u5f02\u4e3a 8%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u6307\u6807\u65f6\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>MAPE \u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7b54\u6848\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\uff1a<strong>\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u663e\u7136\uff0cMAPE \u503c\u8d8a\u4f4e\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u597d\u201d\u6216\u201c\u574f\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u884c\u4e1a\u7c7b\u578b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE \u503c\u4e0e\u7b80\u5355\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>MAPE \u56e0\u884c\u4e1a\u800c\u5f02<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5176\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4f7f\u7528 MAPE \u6765\u8861\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u6807\u51c6\u201dMAPE \u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u4e1a\u52a1\u7c7b\u578b\u800c\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u5f88\u5c11\u6539\u53d8\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u7684 MAPE\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4e8e 3%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u5e38\u8fdb\u884c\u4fc3\u9500\u548c\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u663e\u7740\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f88\u96be\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e MAPE \u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u60a8\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9 MAPE \u7684\u201c\u884c\u4e1a\u6807\u51c6\u201d\u975e\u5e38\u6000\u7591\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5c06 MAPE \u4e0e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u60a8\u4e0d\u5e94\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u7684 MAPE \u4e0e\u4efb\u610f\u201c\u826f\u597d\u201d\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u7b80\u5355\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684 MAPE \u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1.\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u6d4b\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u503c\u5c06\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5148\u524d\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>2. \u6734\u7d20\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4f46\u6548\u679c\u5374\u51fa\u5947\u7684\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u65b0\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u60a8\u5e94\u8be5\u5c06\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684 MAPE \u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684 MAPE \u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684 MAPE \u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u4f18\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60a8\u4e0d\u5e94\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6700\u540e\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5c3d\u7ba1 MAPE \u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u4e14\u6613\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4f7f\u7528\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1.<\/strong>\u7531\u4e8e\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a |actual-forecast| \/ |\u771f\u5b9e|\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5982\u679c\u4efb\u4f55\u5b9e\u9645\u503c\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5b83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">2. MAPE \u4e0d\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4f4e\u5bb9\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u6c42\u4e3a 2\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a 1\uff0c\u5219\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\u503c\u4e3a |2-1| \/ |2| = 50%\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u663e\u5f97\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u9884\u6d4b\u4ec5\u504f\u79bb 1 \u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE \u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5747\u65b9\u8bef\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/excel\u5361\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u5728 Excel \u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97 MAPE<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/r\u5361\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u5728 R \u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97 MAPE<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u87d2\u86c7\u5361\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u5728Python\u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97MAPE<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u826f\u597d\u7684 RMSE \u503c\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8861\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u662fMAPE \uff0c\u5b83\u4ee3\u8868\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\u3002 MAPE\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a MAPE [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - 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