{"id":1358,"date":"2023-07-26T17:53:35","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T17:53:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%a3%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T17:53:35","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T17:53:35","slug":"%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%a3%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%a3%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/strong>\u662f\u6307<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u603b\u4f53\u4e0e\u6837\u672c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4eba\u53e3<\/a>\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u57ce\u5e0243.8%\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002\u503c<strong>0.438<\/strong>\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u59cb\u7ec8\u4ecb\u4e8e 0 \u548c 1 \u4e4b\u95f4\uff08\u6216 0% \u5230 100% \u4f5c\u4e3a\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff09\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <strong>p = X \/ N<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\uff1a<\/strong>\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>X\uff1a<\/strong>\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>N\uff1a<\/strong>\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u603b\u4eba\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u4f30\u8ba1\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7531\u4e8e\u6536\u96c6\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u636e\u901a\u5e38\u8fc7\u4e8e\u8017\u65f6\u4e14\u6602\u8d35\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6536\u96c6\u6837\u672c\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u53e3\u603b\u6570\u7531 50,000 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9 1,000 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u8fdb\u884c<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837<\/a>\uff1a<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12212 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/pop_vs_sample3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"381\" height=\"514\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">p\u0302 = x \/ n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\u0302\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>x\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u603b\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765<em>\u4f30\u8ba1<\/em>\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684 1,000 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u4e2d\u6709 367 \u4eba\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\uff0c\u5219\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 367\/1,000 = <strong>0.367<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1<strong>\u4e3a 0.367<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0e\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b8c\u5168\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u603b\u4f53\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u6bd4\u4f8b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a>\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = p\u0302<\/strong> <strong>+\/- z*\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p\u0302(1-p\u0302) \/ n<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\u0302\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\uff1a<\/strong>\u9009\u62e9\u7684z\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u91cf<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u60a8\u4f7f\u7528\u7684 z \u503c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u60a8\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4e0e\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u9009\u62e9\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 z \u503c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\u503c<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.90<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">1,645<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.95<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">1.96<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.99<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">2.58<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u8f83\u5927\u7684 z \u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5bbd\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5c06\u6bd4 90% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u66f4\u5bbd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a\u4e00\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u67d0\u9879\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d6 100 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8be2\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u91cf<strong>n = 100<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b<strong>p\u0302<\/strong> <strong>= 0.56<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u5230\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>90% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/strong> 0.56 +\/- 1.645*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">0.56(1-0.56) \/ 100<\/span> ) = <strong>[0.478, 0.642]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/strong> 0.56 +\/- 1.96*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">0.56(1-0.56) \/ 100<\/span> ) = <strong>[0.463, 0.657]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>99% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/strong> 0.56 +\/- 2.58*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">0.56(1-0.56) \/ 100<\/span> ) = <strong>[0.432, 0.688]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a<\/strong>\u60a8\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a>\u627e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u57ce\u5e0243.8%\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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