{"id":1412,"date":"2023-07-26T12:12:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T12:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e8%ae%b0%e5%bf%86%e7%9a%84%e8%b4%a2%e4%ba%a7\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T12:12:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T12:12:07","slug":"%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e8%ae%b0%e5%bf%86%e7%9a%84%e8%b4%a2%e4%ba%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e8%ae%b0%e5%bf%86%e7%9a%84%e8%b4%a2%e4%ba%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u8d22\u4ea7\uff1f \uff08\u5b9a\u4e49&amp;#038\uff1b\u793a\u4f8b\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u53d7\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5219\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5177\u6709<strong>\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u975e\u8d1f\u5b9e\u6570\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u975e\u8d1f\u6574\u6570\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u51e0\u4f55\u5206\u5e03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u51e0\u4f55\u5206\u5e03<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u7ed9\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u65f6\u95f4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u67d0\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u65e9\u70b9\u53d1\u751f\u8fd8\u662f\u665a\u70b9\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u8d22\u4ea7\u76f4\u89c9<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8003\u8651\u4ee5\u4e0b\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e0d\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u8bb0\u5fc6<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u636e\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u67d0\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u5e73\u5747\u4f7f\u7528\u5bff\u547d\u7ea6\u4e3a6\u5e74\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u53f0\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86 5 \u5e74\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u8ba1\u5b83\u62a5\u5e9f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c31\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u77ed\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53e6\u4e00\u53f0\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u53ea\u6709 1 \u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u8ba1\u5b83\u62a5\u5e9f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c31\u4f1a\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6bcf\u53f0\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u5bff\u547d\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5176\u62a5\u5e9f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u5c5e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u8bb0\u5fc6<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u731c\u6770\u897f\u5361\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u4fbf\u5229\u5e97\u3002\u5979\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u5979\u9700\u8981\u7b49\u5f85\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u4e0b\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u8fdb\u5165\u5546\u5e97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u8fdb\u5165\u5546\u5e97\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u4f55\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u5546\u5e97\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7528\u5904\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u987e\u5ba2\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5e76\u4e14\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u5c06\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7279\u6027\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u53d7\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u5c5e\u6027\uff1a\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7528\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u4e8e<em>a<\/em>\u548c<em>b<\/em> \uff0c\u5219<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf<\/a><em>X<\/em>\u9075\u5faa\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03<em><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em>\u5728 {0, 1, 2, \u2026} \u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6210\u7acb\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr(X &gt; <em>a<\/em> + <em>b<\/em> | X \u2265 <em>a<\/em> ) = Pr(X &gt; <em>b<\/em> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c <em>X<\/em>\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6b21\u6570\u3002\u5982\u679c<em>a<\/em> = 30 \u4e14<em>b<\/em> = 10 \u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr(X &gt; <em>a<\/em> + <em>b<\/em> | X \u2265 <em>a<\/em> ) = Pr(X &gt; <em>b<\/em> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr(X &gt; 30 + 10 | X \u2265 <em>30<\/em> ) = Pr(X &gt; 10)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr(X &gt; 40 | X \u2265 <em>30<\/em> ) = Pr(X &gt; 10)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6709 30 \u6b21\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u7b49\u5230\u8bd5\u9a8c #40 \u6216\u66f4\u665a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u4ece\u5934\u5f00\u59cb\u5e76\u7b49\u5230\u8bd5\u9a8c #10 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u624d\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u70b9\u4e4b\u524d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6545\u969c\u6570\u91cf\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u6545\u969c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u5c5e\u6027\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u6709 30 \u540d\u987e\u5ba2\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u5bb6\u5546\u5e97\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5230\u8fbe\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5448\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e73\u5747\u95f4\u9694 2 \u5206\u949f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u8ddd\u79bb\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u5230\u8fbe\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86 10 \u5206\u949f\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f02\u5e38\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\uff0c\u5ba2\u6237\u4f3c\u4e4e\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u5185\u5230\u8fbe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u7b49\u5f85\u4e0b\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u5230\u8fbe\u6240\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u5230\u8fbe\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u6307\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u7684 CDF \u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>CDF\uff1a<\/strong> 1 \u2013 e <sup>-\u03bbx<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5176\u4e2d \u03bb \u8ba1\u7b97\u4e3a 1\/\u5e73\u5747\u5230\u8fbe\u95f4\u9694\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u03bb = 1\/2 = 0.5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u7f6e<em>a<\/em> = 10 \u548c<em>b<\/em> = 1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u6709\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr(X &gt; <em>a<\/em> + <em>b<\/em> | X \u2265 <em>a<\/em> ) = Pr(X &gt; <em>b<\/em> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pr( <sup>X<\/sup> &gt; 10 + 1 |<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u65e0\u8bba\u8ddd\u79bb\u4e0a\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u5230\u8fbe\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8ddd\u79bb\u4e0b\u4e00\u4f4d\u987e\u5ba2\u5230\u8fbe\u65f6\u95f4\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f<strong>0.6065<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u53d7\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5219\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u3002 \u5177\u6709\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7279\u6027\u7684\u6982 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u8d22\u4ea7\uff1f \uff08\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff09<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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