{"id":1459,"date":"2023-07-26T07:41:17","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T07:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%85%a8%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e5%ae%9a%e5%be%8b\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T07:41:17","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T07:41:17","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e5%ae%9a%e5%be%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%85%a8%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e5%ae%9a%e5%be%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u793a\u4f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u77e5\u9053<em>A<\/em>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e8b\u4ef6<em>B<\/em> <sub>1<\/sub> \u3001 <em>B<\/em> <sub>2<\/sub> \u3001 <em>B<\/em> <sub>3<\/sub> &#8230; \u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u533a\u65f6<strong>\uff0c\u603b\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b\u662f\u6c42\u51fa\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\u7684<\/strong><em>\u6709\u7528<\/em>\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f41\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4<\/a><em>S\u3002<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8be5\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5168\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c<em>B<\/em> <sub>1<\/sub> , <em>B<\/em> <sub>2<\/sub> , <em>B<\/em> <sub>3<\/sub> \u2026 \u6784\u6210\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4<em>S<\/em>\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u533a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e8b\u4ef6<em>A<\/em>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P( <em>A<\/em> ) = \u03a3P( <em>A<\/em> | <em>Bi<\/em> <sub>)<\/sub> *P( <em>B<\/em> <sub>i<\/sub> )<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u6761\u5b9a\u5f8b\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u4e3e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u76d2\u5b50\u91cc\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u888b\u5b50\uff0c\u91cc\u9762\u88c5\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5f39\u73e0\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7b2c 1 \u888b\uff1a<\/strong> 7 \u4e2a\u7ea2\u8272\u5f39\u73e0\u548c 3 \u4e2a\u7eff\u8272\u5f39\u73e0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7b2c 2 \u888b\uff1a<\/strong> 2 \u4e2a\u7ea2\u8272\u5f39\u73e0\u548c 8 \u4e2a\u7eff\u8272\u5f39\u73e0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u888b\u5b50\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece\u8be5\u888b\u5b50\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f39\u73e0\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u7eff\u8272\u5f39\u73e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee4 P( <em>G<\/em> ) = \u9009\u62e9\u7eff\u8272\u5f39\u73e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528<em>G<\/em>\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u67d0\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6<em>B<\/em> \uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<em>B<\/em> <sub>i<\/sub>\u5f62\u6210\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4<em>S<\/em>\u7684\u5206\u533a\u3002\u5728\u672c\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G| <sub>B1<\/sub> ) = 3\/10 = 0.3<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G| <sub>B2<\/sub> ) = 8\/10 = 0.8<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u5168\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\u7eff\u8272\u5927\u7406\u77f3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G) = \u03a3P(G|B <sub>i<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>i<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G) = P(G|B <sub>1<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>1<\/sub> ) + P(G|B <sub>2<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>2<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G) = (0.3)*(0.5) + (0.8)*(0.5)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(G) = <strong>0.55<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u888b\u5b50\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece\u8be5\u888b\u5b50\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u9897\u5f39\u73e0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u7eff\u8272\u5f39\u73e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>0.55<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u9605\u8bfb\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\u4ee5\u5de9\u56fa\u60a8\u5bf9\u5168\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 1\uff1a\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">A \u516c\u53f8 80% \u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u4f9b\u5e94\u7ed9\u4e00\u5bb6\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fee\u7406\u5382\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6709 1% \u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u3002 B\u516c\u53f8\u5411\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fee\u7406\u5382\u4f9b\u5e94\u5269\u4f5920%\u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d3%\u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-14445 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/loitot1.png\" alt=\"\u5168\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u5f8b\u793a\u4f8b\" width=\"363\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u987e\u5ba2\u968f\u673a\u4ece\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fee\u7406\u5e97\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba9 P( <em>D<\/em> ) = \u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c <em>P(B<\/em> <sub>i<\/sub> ) \u662f\u8be5\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8d2d\u4e70\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(D) = \u03a3P(D|B <sub>i<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>i<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(D) = P(D|B <sub>1<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>1<\/sub> ) + P(D|B <sub>2<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>2<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(D) = (0.01)*(0.80) + (0.03)*(0.20)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(D) = <strong>0.014<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u8fd9\u5bb6\u6c7d\u8f66\u5546\u5e97\u968f\u673a\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u90e8\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>0.014<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 2\uff1a\u68ee\u6797<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u68ee\u6797A\u5360\u67d0\u516c\u56ed\u603b\u9762\u79ef\u768450%\uff0c\u8fd9\u7247\u68ee\u6797\u4e2d20%\u7684\u690d\u7269\u662f\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u3002 B\u68ee\u6797\u5360\u603b\u9762\u79ef\u768430%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d40%\u7684\u690d\u7269\u6709\u6bd2\u3002\u68ee\u6797C\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u5269\u4f5920%\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u53d1\u73b0\u768470%\u7684\u690d\u7269\u6709\u6bd2\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-14447 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/loitot2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"343\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u8d70\u8fdb\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u56ed\u5e76\u4ece\u5730\u4e0a\u6458\u4e0b\u4e00\u682a\u690d\u7269\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee4 P( <em>P<\/em> ) = \u690d\u7269\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c <em>P(B <sub>i<\/sub> )<\/em>\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u5165\u4e09\u4e2a\u68ee\u6797\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u690d\u7269\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(P) = \u03a3P(P|B <sub>i<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>i<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(P) = P(P|B <sub>1<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>1<\/sub> ) + P(P|B <sub>2<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>2<\/sub> ) + P(P|B <sub>3<\/sub> )*P(B <sub>3<\/sub> )<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(P) = (0.20)*(0.50) + (0.40)*(0.30) + (0.70)*(0.20)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(P) = <strong>0.36<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5730\u4e0a\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u79cd\u690d\u7269\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>0.36<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6559\u7a0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u5173\u6982\u7387\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u9644\u52a0\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u5230\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u5230\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee<\/a><br \/>\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u77e5\u9053A\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e8b\u4ef6B 1 \u3001 B 2 \u3001 B 3 &#8230; \u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u533a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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