{"id":1625,"date":"2023-07-25T14:58:26","date_gmt":"2023-07-25T14:58:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%a0%87%e5%87%86%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae\/"},"modified":"2023-07-25T14:58:26","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T14:58:26","slug":"%e6%a0%87%e5%87%86%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e6%a0%87%e5%87%86%e6%af%94%e4%be%8b%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\uff1a\u516c\u5f0f\u548c\u793a\u4f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f30\u8ba1\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u603b\u4f53\u4e0e\u6837\u672c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u603b\u4f53<\/a>\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u67d0\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8be2\u95ee\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c45\u6c11\u662f\u5426\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6536\u96c6\u4e00\u4e2a<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6837\u672c<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u627e\u51fa\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5c45\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97<strong>\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b (p\u0302)\uff0c<\/strong>\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6bd4\u4f8b\u516c\u5f0f\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\u0302 = x \/ n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>x\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u603b\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765<em>\u4f30\u8ba1<\/em>\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684 300 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u4e2d\u6709 47 \u4eba\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\uff0c\u5219\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 47\/300 = <strong>0.157<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a<strong>0.157<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u5c06\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b8c\u5168\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8fd8\u4f1a\u8ba1\u7b97<strong>\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6bd4\u4f8b\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee = \u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p\u0302(1-p\u0302) \/ n<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c p\u0302 = 0.157 \u4e14 n = 300\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee = \u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">.157(1-.157) \/ 300<\/span> = <strong>0.021<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = p\u0302<\/strong> <strong>+\/- z*\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p\u0302(1-p\u0302) \/ n<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u770b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u770b\u51fa<strong>\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5c31\u8d8a\u5bbd<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684<strong>z<\/strong>\u662f\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u9009\u62e9\u7684 z \u503c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\u503c<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.90<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">1,645<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.95<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">1.96<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">0.99<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">2.58<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">95% CI = p\u0302 +\/- z*\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p\u0302(1-p\u0302) \/ n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">95% CI = 0.157 +\/- 1.96*\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">0.157(1-0.157) \/ 300<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">95% CI = 0.157 +\/- 1.96*(0.021)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">95% CI = [.10884, .19816]<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709 95% \u7684\u628a\u63e1\u8bf4\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728 10,884% \u5230 19,816% \u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f30\u8ba1\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u67d0\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u652f\u6301\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ 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