{"id":3142,"date":"2023-07-19T00:36:05","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T00:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae%e5%b9%85%e5%ba%a6\/"},"modified":"2023-07-19T00:36:05","modified_gmt":"2023-07-19T00:36:05","slug":"%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae%e5%b9%85%e5%ba%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e8%af%af%e5%b7%ae%e5%b9%85%e5%ba%a6\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e3e\u4f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6<\/strong>\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6216\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u603b\u4f53\u53c2\u6570<\/a>\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u793a\u4f8b\u663e\u793a\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 1\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = p<\/strong> <strong>+\/- z*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p(1-p) \/ n<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>p\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\uff1a<\/strong>\u9009\u62e9\u7684z\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u91cf<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7b49\u5f0f\u4e2d +\/- \u53f7\u540e\u9762\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4ee3\u8868\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4 = z*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p(1-p) \/ n<\/span> )<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u53bf\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u67d0\u9879\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d6 100 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8be2\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u91cf<strong>n = 100<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b<strong>p = 0.56<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d5e\u6210\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4 = z*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p(1-p) \/ n<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 = 1.96*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">.56(1-.56) \/ 100<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4 = 0.0973<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = p<\/strong> <strong>+\/- z*(\u221a <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">p(1-p) \/ n<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = 0.56<\/strong> <strong>+\/- 0.0973<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = [.4627, .6573]<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e3a<strong>[.4627, .6573]<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec95%\u786e\u4fe1\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u572846.27%\u523065.73%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5c45\u6c11\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a 56%\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8be5\u6837\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u51cf\u53bb\u548c\u52a0\u4e0a\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 2\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> +\/- z*(s\/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> \uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u5747\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>z\uff1a<\/strong> z \u4e34\u754c\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>s\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n\uff1a<\/strong>\u6837\u672c\u91cf<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7b49\u5f0f\u4e2d +\/- \u53f7\u540e\u9762\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4ee3\u8868\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 = z*(s\/ <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">\u221an<\/span> )<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u7fa4\u6d77\u8c5a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4f53\u91cd\u3002\u6211\u4eec<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u968f\u673a\u6536\u96c6\u6d77\u8c5a\u6837\u672c<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u91cf<strong>n = 40<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e73\u5747\u6837\u672c\u91cd\u91cf<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> = 300<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee<strong>s = 18.5<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 = z*(s\/ <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">\u221an<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 = 1.96*(18.5\/ <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">\u221a40<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 = 5.733<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> +\/- z*(s\/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n<\/span> )<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = 300 +\/- 5.733<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 =[294.267, 305.733]<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8be5\u79cd\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6d77\u8c5a\u5e73\u5747\u4f53\u91cd\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e3a<strong>[294.267, 305.733]<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec 95% \u786e\u4fe1\u8be5\u79cd\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6d77\u8c5a\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5e73\u5747\u4f53\u91cd\u5728 294,267 \u78c5\u81f3 305,733 \u78c5\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6d77\u8c5a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u91cd\u91cf\u4e3a 300 \u78c5\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8fc7\u51cf\u53bb\u548c\u6dfb\u52a0\u8be5\u6837\u672c\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u8be5\u79cd\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6d77\u8c5a\u771f\u5b9e\u5e73\u5747\u4f53\u91cd\u7684\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6559\u7a0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u9644\u52a0\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u533a\u522b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\uff1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u533a\u522b\uff1f<\/a><br \/>\u5982\u4f55\u5728Excel\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4-ti-84\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u5728 TI-84 \u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u4e0a\u67e5\u627e\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u603b\u4f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6216\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002 \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\uff08\u9644\u793a\u4f8b\uff09- Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\u89e3\u91ca\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u89e3\u91ca\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\uff08\u9644\u793a\u4f8b\uff09- Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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