{"id":3677,"date":"2023-07-16T04:53:28","date_gmt":"2023-07-16T04:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-%e7%bb%99%e5%87%ba-b-%e7%9a%84%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87\/"},"modified":"2023-07-16T04:53:28","modified_gmt":"2023-07-16T04:53:28","slug":"a-%e7%bb%99%e5%87%ba-b-%e7%9a%84%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-%e7%bb%99%e5%87%ba-b-%e7%9a%84%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u6c42\u7ed9\u5b9a b \u7684 a \u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u9644\u793a\u4f8b\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u548c B\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6c42 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740<strong>\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6c42\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B) = P(A)*P(B|A) \/ P(B)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B)\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6 B\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B|A)\uff1a\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A)\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B)\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u793a\u4f8b\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 1\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a B\uff08\u5929\u6c14\uff09\u65f6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u5929\u6c14\u591a\u4e91\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>40%\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>20%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u96e8\u5929\u6709\u4e91\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>85%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u5916\u9762\u591a\u4e91\uff0c\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848<\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u9634\u5929\uff09= 0.40<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u96e8\uff09= 0.20<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u9634\u5929 | \u96e8) = 0.85<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u96e8 | \u9634\u5929) = P(\u96e8) * P(\u9634\u5929 | \u96e8) \/ P(\u9634\u5929)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u96e8 | \u9634\u5929) = 0.20 * 0.85 \/ 0.40<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u96e8 | \u9634\u5929) = 0.425<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u5ba4\u5916\u591a\u4e91\uff0c\u5219\u5f53\u5929\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>0.425<\/strong>\u6216<strong>42.5%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 2\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a B\uff08\u72af\u7f6a\uff09\u65f6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u53d1\u751f\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>1%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u8b66\u8f66\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>10%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u72af\u7f6a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8b66\u8f66\u9a76\u8fc7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>90%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u8f86\u8b66\u8f66\u9a76\u8fc7\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848<\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u72af\u7f6a\uff09= 0.01<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u5b57\u4f53\u8f66\uff09=0.10<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u8b66\u8f66|\u72af\u7f6a\uff09= 0.90<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u72af\u7f6a|\u8b66\u8f66) = P(\u72af\u7f6a) * P(\u8b66\u8f66|\u72af\u7f6a) \/ P(\u8b66\u8f66)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u72af\u7f6a|\u8b66\u8f66) = 0.01 * 0.90 \/ 0.10<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u72af\u7f6a|\u8b66\u8f66) = 0.09<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u8f86\u8b66\u8f66\u7ecf\u8fc7\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f 0.09 \u6216<strong>9%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 3\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u65f6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u68d2\u7403\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u68d2\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u51fb\u51fa\u672c\u5792\u6253\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>5%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5f53\u60a8\u8d70\u8fc7\u4f53\u80b2\u573a\u65f6\uff0c\u89c2\u4f17\u9f13\u638c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>15%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5f53\u5168\u5792\u6253\u88ab\u51fb\u4e2d\u65f6\uff0c\u89c2\u4f17\u9f13\u638c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<strong>99%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4f53\u80b2\u573a\u65f6\u542c\u5230\u4eba\u7fa4\u6b22\u547c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u51fb\u51fa\u672c\u5792\u6253\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848<\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u672c\u5792\u6253\uff09= 0.05<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u6b22\u547c\uff09= 0.15<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u6b22\u547c|\u672c\u5792\u6253\uff09= 0.99<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u672c\u5792\u6253 | \u6b22\u547c) = P(\u672c\u5792\u6253) * P(\u6b22\u547c | \u672c\u5792\u6253) \/ P(\u6b22\u547c)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u672c\u5792\u6253 | \u6b22\u547c\uff09= 0.05 * 0.99 \/ 0.15<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P\uff08\u672c\u5792\u6253|\u6b22\u547c\uff09= 0.33<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4f53\u80b2\u573a\u65f6\u542c\u5230\u4eba\u7fa4\u6b22\u547c\uff0c\u5219\u51fb\u51fa\u672c\u5792\u6253\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 0.33 \u6216<strong>33%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6559\u7a0b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u6267\u884c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-\u6216-b-\u7684\u6982\u7387\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u6c42 A \u6216 B \u7684\u6982\u7387<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-\u548c-b-\u7684\u6982\u7387\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u6c42A\u548cB\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u6b21\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u5230\u201c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u6b21\u201d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u548c B\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6c42 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6c42\u4e8b\u4ef6 A  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u5982\u4f55\u6c42\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u7684 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u9644\u793a\u4f8b\uff09 - \u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u65f6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-\u7ed9\u51fa-b-\u7684\u6982\u7387\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u5982\u4f55\u6c42\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u7684 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u9644\u793a\u4f8b\uff09 - \u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed9\u5b9a B \u65f6 A \u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/a-\u7ed9\u51fa-b-\u7684\u6982\u7387\/\" \/>\n<meta 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