{"id":586,"date":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%90%8e%e9%aa%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","slug":"%e5%90%8e%e9%aa%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%90%8e%e9%aa%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49+\u793a\u4f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/strong>\u662f\u8003\u8651\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u540e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u521a\u521a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201cB\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201cA\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>P(A|B)<\/strong> = P(A) * P(B|A) \/ P(B)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B) = \u5047\u8bbe\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u5df2\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5219\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\u201c| \u00bb \u610f\u601d\u662f\u201c\u7ed9\u4e88\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A) = \u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B) = \u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B|A) = \u5047\u8bbe\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u5df2\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5219\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u68ee\u6797\u7531 20% \u7684\u6a61\u6811\u548c 80% \u7684\u67ab\u6811\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053 90% \u7684\u6a61\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u6709 50% \u7684\u67ab\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ece\u8fdc\u5904\u770b\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4e00\u68f5\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u68f5\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) \/ P(B)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u6a61\u6728|\u5065\u5eb7) = P(\u6a61\u6728) * P(\u5065\u5eb7|\u6a61\u6728) \/ P(\u5065\u5eb7)<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(Oak) = \u7ed9\u5b9a\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>0.2<\/strong> \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u68ee\u6797\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u6811\u7684 20% \u662f\u6a61\u6811\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u5065\u5eb7) = \u7ed9\u5b9a\u6811\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a (0.20)*(0.9) + (0.8)*(0.5) = <strong>0.58<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(Healthy|Oak) = \u5982\u679c\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<strong>0.9<\/strong> \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u88ab\u544a\u77e5 90% \u7684\u6a61\u6811\u90fd\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8fd9\u68f5\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u6a61\u6728|\u5065\u5eb7) = P(\u6a61\u6728) * P(\u5065\u5eb7|\u6a61\u6728) \/ P(\u5065\u5eb7) = (0.2) * (0.9) \/ (0.58) = <strong>0.3103<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u76f4\u89c2\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7f51\u683c\u4ee3\u8868\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531 100 \u68f5\u6811\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u3002\u5176\u4e2d 20 \u68f5\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 18 \u68f5\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4ed6 80 \u68f5\u6811\u662f\u67ab\u6811\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 40 \u68f5\u5f88\u5065\u5eb7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uff08O = \u6a61\u6728\uff0cM = \u67ab\u6728\uff0c\u7eff\u8272 = \u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272 = \u4e0d\u5065\u5eb7\uff09<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5346 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/posterieur_prob0.png\" alt=\"\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\" width=\"326\" height=\"258\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6240\u6709\u6811\u6728\u4e2d\uff0c\u6070\u597d\u6709 58 \u68f5\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 18 \u68f5\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u68f5\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6811\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f 18\/58 = <strong>0.3103<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5e94\u8be5\u4f7f\u7528\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f7f\u7528\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u83b7\u5f97\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u540e\u66f4\u65b0\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e8b\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u68ee\u6797\u4e2d\u4e00\u68f5\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f 20%\u3002\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e3a<strong>\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u5b83\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f 0.20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6811\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u8fd9\u68f5\u6811\u662f\u6a61\u6811\u7684<strong>\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/strong>\u4e3a 0.3103\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u65b0\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u751f\u6210\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f\u8003\u8651\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u540e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u521a\u521a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201cB\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201cA\u201d\u7684\u6982 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49 + \u793a\u4f8b - Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b83\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" 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