{"id":589,"date":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/excel%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","slug":"excel%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/excel%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u5728 excel \u4e2d\u6784\u5efa\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4ee5\u7b80\u5355\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u89e3\u91ca\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u5b66\u4e60\u7edf\u8ba1\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7b80\u5355\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52<\/a>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf x \u548c\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf y \u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6267\u884c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u6761\u63cf\u8ff0 x \u548c y \u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u7ebf\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 = b <sub>0<\/sub> + b <sub>1<\/sub> x<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 \u662f\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>0<\/sub>\u662f y \u8f74\u622a\u8ddd<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>1<\/sub>\u662f\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">x \u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6709\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u6761\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u7ebf\u6765\u6784\u5efa\u7ed9\u5b9a\u503c x <sub>0<\/sub>\u7684<strong>\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4<\/strong>\uff0c\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u503c \u0177 <sub>0<\/sub>\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d y \u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u6709 95% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684x <sub>0<\/sub>\u5305\u542b\u5728\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u3002<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed9\u5b9a\u503c x <sub>0<\/sub>\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00d7 <sub>0<\/sub> +\/- t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2<\/sub> * se<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">se = S <sub>yx<\/sub> \u221a(1 + 1\/n + (x <sub>0<\/sub> \u2013 <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> ) <sup>2<\/sup> \/SS <sub>x<\/sub> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6709\u70b9\u5413\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5728 Excel \u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97 Excel \u4e2d\u7ed9\u5b9a\u503c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5728 Excel \u4e2d\u6784\u5efa\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u663e\u793a\u4e86 15 \u540d\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u4ee5\u53ca\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\uff1a<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5374 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/intervalle_de-prediction1.png\" alt=\"Excel \u4e2d\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\" width=\"464\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e3a\u503c x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 \u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a 95% \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7684\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\u6709 95% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u843d\u5165\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u51853\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u622a\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6240\u6709\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6ce8\uff1a<\/strong> <em>F<\/em>\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u663e\u793a\u4e86<em>E<\/em>\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u503c\u662f\u5982\u4f55<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5377 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/prediction_intervalle2-1.png\" alt=\"\u5982\u4f55\u5728 Excel \u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\" width=\"570\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 \u503c\u7684 95% \u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u4e3a<strong>(74.64, 86.90)<\/strong> \u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5 95% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u5b66\u4e60 3 \u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97 74.64 \u5230 86.90 \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5173\u4e8e\u6240\u7528\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97 t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2 \u7684 t \u4e34\u754c\u503c\uff0c<\/sub>\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 \u03b1\/2 = 0.05\/2 = 0.25\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981 95% \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c99% \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff09\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5bbd\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff08\u4f8b\u598290%\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff09\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u8f83\u7a84\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u516c\u5f0f<strong>=FORECAST()<\/strong>\u6765\u83b7\u53d6 \u0177 <sub>0<\/sub>\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f<strong>=FORECAST.LINEAR()<\/strong>\u5c06\u8fd4\u56de\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c \u7b80\u5355\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf x \u548c\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf y \u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002 \u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6267\u884c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7ebf [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u5982\u4f55\u5728 Excel 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