{"id":601,"date":"2023-07-29T09:10:25","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e6%af%94%e5%80%bc%e6%af%94\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T09:10:25","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:10:25","slug":"%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e6%af%94%e5%80%bc%e6%af%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%e6%af%94%e5%80%bc%e6%af%94\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6982\u7387<\/strong>\u662f\u6307\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

P(\u4e8b\u4ef6) = (# \u7406\u60f3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c) \/ (# \u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u888b\u5b50\u91cc\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u7ea2\u7403\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7eff\u7403\u3002\u5982\u679c\u95ed\u4e0a\u773c\u775b\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u5219\u9009\u62e9\u7eff\u8272\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

P\uff08\u7eff\u8272\uff09= 1 \/ 5 = 0.2<\/strong> \u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n

\"\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u793a\u4f8b\"<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/strong>\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u8d54\u7387\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u673a\u4f1a\uff08\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09= P\uff08\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff09\/ 1-P\uff08\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5c04\u51fa\u7eff\u7403\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4e3a (0.2)\/1-(0.2) = 0.2\/0.8 = 0.25<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4<\/strong>\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u5e78\u8fd0\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d54\u7387=\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u7684\u8d54\u7387\/\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u7684\u8d54\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9009\u62e9\u7ea2\u7403\u548c\u7eff\u7403\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u62bd\u5230\u7ea2\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f 4\/5 = 0.8<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u62bd\u5230\u7ea2\u7403\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u662f (0.8) \/ 1-(0.8) = 0.8 \/ 0.2 = 4<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9009\u62e9\u7ea2\u7403\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7eff\u7403\u7684\u4f18\u52bf<\/strong>\u6bd4\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d54\u7387\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\uff09\/\u8d54\u7387\uff08\u7eff\u8272\uff09= 4 \/ 0.25 = 16<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\u5c04\u51fa\u7ea2\u7403\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u662f\u5c04\u51fa\u7eff\u7403\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u7684 16 \u500d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u4f55\u65f6\u4f7f\u7528\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5e0c\u671b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u3002<\/span>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u793a\u4f8b#1\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u6cbb\u7597\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u65b0\u6cbb\u7597\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u60a3\u8005\u83b7\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u5065\u5eb7\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6839\u636e\u6cbb\u7597\u60c5\u51b5\u51fa\u73b0\u79ef\u6781\u6216\u6d88\u6781\u5065\u5eb7\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u4eba\u6570\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n

\"\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u7684\u5217\u8054\u8868\"<\/p>\n

\u60a3\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u65b0\u6cbb\u7597\u83b7\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong>= P(\u6b63) \/ 1 \u2013 P(\u6b63) = (50\/90) \/ 1-(50\/90) = (50\/90) \/ (40\/90) = 1.25<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u60a3\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u73b0\u6709\u6cbb\u7597\u83b7\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong>= P(\u6b63) \/ 1 \u2013 P(\u6b63) = (42\/90) \/ 1-(42\/90) = (42\/90) \/ (48\/90) = 0.875<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u6cbb\u7597\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u65b0\u6cbb\u7597\u53d6\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4<\/strong>= 1.25 \/ 0.875 = 1.428<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6b64\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u60a3\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u6cbb\u7597\u83b7\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u662f\u60a3\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u73b0\u6709\u6cbb\u7597\u83b7\u5f97\u79ef\u6781\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51e0\u7387<\/strong>\u7684<\/strong>1.428<\/strong>\u500d<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u65b0\u7597\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u9633\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u589e\u52a0\u4e8642.8%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u793a\u4f8b#2\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u8425\u9500\u4eba\u5458\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u5219\u5e7f\u544a\u662f\u5426\u6bd4\u53e6\u4e00\u5219\u5e7f\u544a\u66f4\u80fd\u8ba9\u5ba2\u6237\u8d2d\u4e70\u7279\u5b9a\u5546\u54c1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u4eec\u5411 100 \u4eba\u5c55\u793a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6839\u636e\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5e7f\u544a\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff1a<\/span> <\/p>\n

\"\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u793a\u4f8b\"<\/p>\n

\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d54\u7387<\/strong>= P\uff08\u4e70\u5165\uff09\/ 1 \u2013 P\uff08\u4e70\u5165\uff09= (73\/100) \/ 1-(73\/100) = (73\/100) \/ (27\/100) = 2.704<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d54\u7387<\/strong>= P\uff08\u4e70\u5165\uff09\/ 1 \u2013 P\uff08\u4e70\u5165\uff09= (65\/100) \/ 1-(65\/10) = (65\/100) \/ (35\/100) = 1.857<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5ba2\u6237\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4<\/strong>= 2.704 \/ 1.857 = 1.456<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6b64\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5e7f\u544a\u540e\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u7684<\/strong>1.456<\/strong>\u500d<\/strong>\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9996\u6b21\u4e0a\u67b6\uff0c\u8d2d\u4e70\u8be5\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e8645.6%<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u5728 Excel \u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u548c\u76f8\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669<\/a>
\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u6bd4\u503c\u6bd4\u5c0f\u4e8e 1
\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u76f8\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6307\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a \u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a P(\u4e8b\u4ef6) = (# \u7406\u60f3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c) \/ (# […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"\n\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u6bd4\u503c\u6bd4 \u2013 Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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