{"id":603,"date":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%b8%8c%e7%91%9f%e5%88%86%e6%95%b0\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","slug":"%e5%b8%8c%e7%91%9f%e5%88%86%e6%95%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e5%b8%8c%e7%91%9f%e5%88%86%e6%95%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f brier \u5206\u6570\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u5206\u6570<\/strong>\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u65f6\u4f7f\u7528\uff1a\u7ed3\u679c\u8981\u4e48\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8bf4\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 90%\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5374\u4e0b\u96e8\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u6b64\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u5206\u6570<\/strong>= (f \u2013 o) <sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">f = \u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">o = \u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u5219\u4e3a 1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u5219\u4e3a 0\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5728\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570\u5c06\u4e3a (0.9 \u2013 1) <sup>2<\/sup> = -0.1 <sup>2<\/sup> = <strong>0.01<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e00\u7ec4\u63d0\u793a\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570\u53ef\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e3a\u5404\u4e2a\u63d0\u793a\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u5206\u6570<\/strong>= 1\/n * \u03a3(f <sub>t<\/sub> \u2013 o <sub>t<\/sub> ) <sup>2<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">n = \u6837\u672c\u5927\u5c0f\uff08\u9884\u6d4b\u6570\u91cf\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u03a3 = \u4e00\u4e2a\u5947\u7279\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u201c\u548c\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">f <sub>t<\/sub> = \u4e8b\u4ef6<em>t<\/em>\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">o = \u4e8b\u4ef6<em>t<\/em>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u5219\u4e3a 1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u5219\u4e3a 0\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Brier \u5206\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d6 0 \u5230 1 \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u503c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 0 \u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5206\u6570\uff0c1 \u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6700\u5dee\u5206\u6570\u3002 Brier \u5206\u6570\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u8d8a\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u5206\u6570\u8ba1\u7b97\u793a\u4f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u793a\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97 Brier \u5206\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 1\uff1a\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8bf4\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 0%\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570 = (0 \u2013 1) <sup>2<\/sup> = 1<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 2\uff1a\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8bf4\u6709 100% \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f1a\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570 = (1 \u2013 1) <sup>2<\/sup> = 0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 3\uff1a\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8bf4\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 27%\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570 = (0.27 \u2013 1) <sup>2<\/sup> = 0.5329<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 4\uff1a\u9884\u62a5\u663e\u793a\u6709 97% \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f1a\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709 97% \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570 = (0.97 \u2013 0) <sup>2<\/sup> = 0.9409<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u793a\u4f8b 5\uff1a\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u505a\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u96e8<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">27%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">67%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">83%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u65e0\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">90%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u7ec4\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u96e8<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">27%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(.27-1) <sup>2<\/sup> = .5329<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">67%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(.67-1) <sup>2<\/sup> = .1089<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">83%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u65e0\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(.83-0) <sup>2<\/sup> = .6889<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">90%<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u96e8<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(.90-1) <sup>2<\/sup> = .01<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5e03\u8d56\u5c14\u5206\u6570 = (.5329 + .1089 + .6889 + .01) \/ 4 = <strong>0.3352<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u8346\u68d8\u6280\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206<\/strong>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier \u5f97\u5206\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\u6709\u591a\u597d\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u719f\u7ec3\u5ea6\u5206\u6570<\/strong>= (BS <sub>E<\/sub> \u2013 BS <sub>N<\/sub> ) \/ BS <sub>E<\/sub><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\u5b50\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">BS <sub>E<\/sub> = \u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier \u5206\u6570<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">BS <sub>N<\/sub> = \u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier Score<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u4e3a\u6b63\uff0c\u5219\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5982\u679c Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u5219\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u5dee\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5982\u679c Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u5219\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u6539\u8fdb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier \u5f97\u5206\u4e3a BS <sub>E<\/sub> = 0.4221\uff0c\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier \u5f97\u5206\u4e3a BS <sub>N<\/sub> = 0.3352\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684 Brier Skill Score \u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Brier \u719f\u7ec3\u5ea6\u5206\u6570<\/strong>= (0.4421 \u2013 0.3352) \/ (0.4421) = <strong>0.2418<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u6b63\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brier \u5206\u6570\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u65f6\u4f7f\u7528\uff1a\u7ed3\u679c\u8981\u4e48\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8981\u4e48 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f Brier \u5206\u6570\uff1f - \u7edf\u8ba1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brier \u5206\u6570\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4f55\u65f6\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b83\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u5e0c\u745f\u5206\u6570\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f Brier \u5206\u6570\uff1f - \u7edf\u8ba1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brier \u5206\u6570\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4f55\u65f6\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b83\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u5e0c\u745f\u5206\u6570\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-29T09:02:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u535a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u535a\" \/>\n<script 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