{"id":741,"date":"2023-07-28T22:18:26","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T22:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e7%bd%ae%e4%bf%a1%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4%e7%9b%b8%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e6%95%b0\/"},"modified":"2023-07-28T22:18:26","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T22:18:26","slug":"%e7%bd%ae%e4%bf%a1%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4%e7%9b%b8%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e6%95%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/%e7%bd%ae%e4%bf%a1%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4%e7%9b%b8%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e6%95%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/strong>\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u521b\u5efa\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u521b\u5efa\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u5efa\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a\u52a8\u673a<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e3a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u521b\u5efa<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u65f6\u6355\u83b7\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u67d0\u4e2a\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8be5\u53bf\u6709\u6570\u5343\u540d\u5c45\u6c11\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8981\u56db\u5904\u8d70\u8bbf\u6536\u96c6\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\u4e14\u8017\u65f6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5c45\u6c11\u6837\u672c<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u6536\u96c6\u6709\u5173\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7603\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ciprop1.png\" alt=\"\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f30\u7b97\u793a\u4f8b\" width=\"429\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u5c45\u6c11\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6837\u672c\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u4e0e\u8f83\u5927\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u5b8c\u5168\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u503c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u8be5\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6b65\u9aa4\u6839\u636e\u6837\u672c\u5927\u5c0f<strong>n<\/strong>\u548c\u6837\u672c\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570<strong>r<\/strong>\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa4 1\uff1a\u6267\u884c Fisher \u53d8\u6362\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee4 z <sub>r<\/sub> = ln((1+r) \/ (1-r)) \/ 2<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa42\uff1a\u627e\u5230\u5bf9\u6570\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u4e0b\u9650\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee4 L = z <sub>r<\/sub> \u2013 (z <sub>1-\u03b1\/2<\/sub> \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n-3<\/span> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8bbe U = z <sub>r<\/sub> + (z <sub>1-\u03b1\/2<\/sub> \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n-3<\/span> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa4 3\uff1a\u6c42\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u627e\u5230\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = [(e <sup>2L<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2L<\/sup> +1), (e <sup>2U<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2U<\/sup> +1)]<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a\u793a\u4f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u67d0\u4e2a\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d6\u4e86 30 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6837\u672c\u91cf<strong>n = 30<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570<strong>r = 0.56<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u627e\u5230\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa4 1\uff1a\u6267\u884c Fisher \u53d8\u6362\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee4 z <sub>r<\/sub> = ln((1+r) \/ (1-r)) \/ 2 = ln((1+.56) \/ (1-.56)) \/ 2 = <strong>0.6328<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa42\uff1a\u627e\u5230\u5bf9\u6570\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u4e0b\u9650\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee4 L = z <sub>r<\/sub> \u2013 (z <sub>1-\u03b1\/2<\/sub> \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n-3<\/span> ) = 0.6328 \u2013 (1.96 \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">30-3<\/span> ) = <strong>0.2556<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee4 U = z <sub>r<\/sub> + (z <sub>1-\u03b1\/2<\/sub> \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">n-3<\/span> ) = 0.6328 + (1.96 \/\u221a <span style=\"border-top: 1px solid black;\">30-3<\/span> ) = <strong>1.01<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6b65\u9aa4 3\uff1a\u6c42\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = [(e <sup>2L<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2L<\/sup> +1), (e <sup>2U<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2U<\/sup> +1)]<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 = [(e <sup>2(.2556)<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2(.2556)<\/sup> +1), (e <sup>2(1.01)<\/sup> -1)\/(e <sup>2(1.01)<\/sup> +1)] = <strong>[. 2502\uff0c.7658]<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a<\/strong>\u60a8\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u8ba1\u7b97\u5668\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/a>\u6765\u67e5\u627e\u6b64\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6211\u4eec\u89e3\u91ca\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 [.2502, .7658] \u5305\u542b\u8be5\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4eba\u53e3\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u53ea\u6709 5% \u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4f4d\u4e8e 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e4b\u5916\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8be5\u53bf\u5c45\u6c11\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4eba\u53e3\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u5c0f\u4e8e0.2502\u6216\u5927\u4e8e0.7658\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u53ea\u67095%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u3002 \u672c\u6559\u7a0b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a \u521b\u5efa\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the 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content=\"\u7b80\u5355\u8bf4\u660e\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5206\u6b65\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/cn\/\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-28T22:18:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ciprop1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u535a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u535a\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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