{"id":377,"date":"2023-08-01T12:09:39","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T12:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/%e0%a4%ac%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af%e0%a4%b8-%e0%a4%aa%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af\/"},"modified":"2023-08-01T12:09:39","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T12:09:39","slug":"%e0%a4%ac%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af%e0%a4%b8-%e0%a4%aa%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/%e0%a4%ac%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af%e0%a4%b8-%e0%a4%aa%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%b0%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%af\/","title":{"rendered":"\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u092f\u0939 \u0906\u0932\u0947\u0916 \u092c\u0924\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u093e\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0940 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u0938 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930, \u0906\u092a \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947\u0902\u0917\u0947 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0939\u0932 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%c2%bfque-es-el-teorema-de-bayes\"><\/span> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p> \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0938\u093f\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0902\u0924 \u092e\u0947\u0902, <strong>\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f<\/strong> \u090f\u0915 \u0915\u093e\u0928\u0942\u0928 \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0909\u0938 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0930\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0925\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u091c\u094d\u091e\u093e\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<p> \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u092c\u0940 \u0926\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u090f \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0940 \u0926\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u090f \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0938\u0947 \u091c\u094b\u0921\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<p> \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u092f\u0926\u093f \u0906\u092a \u092a\u0939\u0932\u0947 \u0938\u0947 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u092b\u094d\u0932\u0942 \u0939\u094b\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u0938\u093f\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0926 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u093e, \u0924\u094b \u0906\u092a \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u0938\u093f\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0926 \u0939\u094b\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u092b\u094d\u0932\u0942 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u093e\u0964<\/p>\n<p> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u0908 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u091a\u093f\u0915\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0938\u093e, \u0905\u0930\u094d\u0925\u0936\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u092f\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u094c\u0926\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0917\u093f\u0915\u0940 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0935\u093e\u0924\u093e\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0942\u0932\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0941\u091b \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0928\u0940\u091a\u0947, \u0939\u092e \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u092d\u093f\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0930\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0924\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u0947 \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947\u0902\u0917\u0947\u0964<\/p>\n<p> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0906\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0905\u0902\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0947\u091c\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u091c\u094d\u091e \u0925\u0949\u092e\u0938 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 (1702-1761) \u0926\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0930\u093e \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0925\u093e, \u0939\u093e\u0932\u093e\u0901\u0915\u093f \u0907\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0930\u0923\u094b\u092a\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0924 1763 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0936\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0925\u093e\u0964 <\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color:#FFFDE7; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 30px; border: 2.5px dashed #FFB74D; border-radius:20px;\"> <span style=\"color:#ff951b\">\u27a4<\/span> <strong>\u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947\u0902:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/\u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924-\u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924-\u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\/\">\u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e<\/a> <\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"formula-del-teorema-de-bayes\"><\/span> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0939\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f<a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/\u092a\u0930\u0938\u094d\u092a\u0930-\u0905\u0928\u0928\u094d\u092f-\u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0930\u092e\/\">\u092a\u093e\u0930\u0938\u094d\u092a\u0930\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902<\/a> {\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> , \u090f <sub>2<\/sub> ,\u2026, \u090f <sub>\u0906\u0908<\/sub> ,\u2026, \u090f <sub>\u090f\u0928<\/sub> } \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0947\u091f \u0938\u0947 \u092c\u0928\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u093e \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u0936\u0942\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u090f\u0915 \u0905\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u092c\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u0939\u092e \u0917\u0923\u093f\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u092c\u0902\u0927\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 A <sub>i<\/sub> \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e B \u0926\u0940 \u0917\u0908 \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 B \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e A <sub>i<\/sub> \u0926\u0940 \u0917\u0908 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<p> \u0924\u094b, <strong>\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930<\/strong> , \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 <strong>\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u092e<\/strong> \u092d\u0940 \u0915\u0939\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0939\u0948: <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/theoreme-de-bayes.png\" alt=\"\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u092e\" class=\"wp-image-8514\" width=\"370\" height=\"318\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/figure>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:7px\"> \u0938\u094b\u0928\u093e:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"color:#FF8A05; font-weight: bold;\">\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:8px\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-62ffcdb184381914ec23155ad31bbfb0_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_i|B)\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"65\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"><\/p>\n<p> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u090f \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, <sub>\u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947<\/sub> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u092c\u0940 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 \u092a\u0936\u094d\u091a \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0939\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:8px\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-676b61239ea67554603513360fbea72b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(B|A_i)\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"65\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"><\/p>\n<p> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e A <sub>i<\/sub> \u0926\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e B \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:8px\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-be31252343b496b792bee3e55a99979f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_i)\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"46\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"><\/p>\n<p> \u0935\u0939 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e A <sub>i<\/sub> \u0918\u091f\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u0940, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0925\u092e\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0939\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0939\u0930 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e \u092c\u0940 \u0915\u0940 <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/\u0915\u0941\u0932-\u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e-\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f\/\">\u0915\u0941\u0932 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e<\/a> \u0939\u0948\u0964 <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"ejemplo-del-teorema-de-bayes\"><\/span> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p> \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u093e\u0930 \u091c\u092c \u0939\u092e \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u092d\u093e\u0937\u093e \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b \u0939\u092e \u0905\u0935\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0923\u093e \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u0922\u0902\u0917 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u091d\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u0938\u0941\u0932\u091d\u093e \u0939\u0941\u0906 \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947\u0902\u0917\u0947\u0964<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> \u090f\u0915 \u0907\u0932\u0947\u0915\u094d\u091f\u094d\u0930\u0949\u0928\u093f\u0915\u094d\u0938 \u0938\u094d\u091f\u094b\u0930 \u0924\u0940\u0928 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u0915\u0947 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u092c\u0947\u091a\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948: \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u091f\u0940\u0935\u0940 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0941\u090f, \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Z \u091f\u0940\u0935\u0940 \u0939\u0948?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> \u092f\u0939 \u0905\u092d\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0938 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0902 \u0926\u0947\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u090f\u0915 \u0917\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u0915 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u094d\u092f\u0947\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u0915\u094b \u0916\u0930\u0940\u0926\u0947\u0917\u093e:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e A <sub>1<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u0917\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u0915 \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 X \u0915\u093e \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0916\u0930\u0940\u0926\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 P(A <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.20<\/li>\n<li> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e A <sub>2<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u0917\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u0915 \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Y \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0916\u0930\u0940\u0926\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 P(A <sub>2<\/sub> )=0.50<\/li>\n<li> \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e A <sub>3<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u0917\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u0915 \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Z \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0916\u0930\u0940\u0926\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 P(A <sub>3<\/sub> )=0.30<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0932\u093e\u0935\u093e, \u0930\u0940\u0921\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0938\u0947 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092f\u0939 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u092d\u0940 \u092e\u093f\u0932\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u094d\u092f\u0947\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u0915\u093e \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0916\u093c\u0930\u093e\u092c \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"> \u0907\u0935\u0947\u0902\u091f \u092c\u0940: \u091f\u0940\u0935\u0940 \u0916\u093c\u0930\u093e\u092c \u0939\u0948<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u090f\u0915\u094d\u0938 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.05<\/li>\n<li> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u0935\u093e\u0908 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> )=0.03<\/li>\n<li> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>3<\/sub> : \u090f\u0915 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 \u091c\u0947\u0921 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>3<\/sub> )=0.04<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> \u0924\u094b \u0939\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0930\u0941\u091a\u093f \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u092d\u0940 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u093e <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/hi\/\u0935\u0943\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e\u0930\u0947\u0916\/\">\u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0935\u0943\u0915\u094d\u0937<\/a> \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0939\u0948: <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"370\" height=\"257\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/theoreme-de-probabilite-de-bayes.png\" alt=\"\u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0935\u0943\u0915\u094d\u0937 \u0906\u0930\u0947\u0916\" class=\"wp-image-8525\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/figure>\n<p> \u0907\u0938\u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f, \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Z \u0939\u0948, \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u093f\u090f:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c15e369635dcf17952b5d832a818d535_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_i|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_i)\\cdot P(A_i)}{\\displaystyle \\sum_{k=1}^n P(B|A_k)\\cdot P(A_k)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"77\" width=\"251\" style=\"vertical-align: -49px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p> \u0907\u0938 \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0924 \u0936\u092c\u094d\u0926\u093e\u0935\u0932\u0940 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0941\u090f, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0907\u0938 \u0924\u0930\u0939 \u0926\u093f\u0916\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7c2b74ac3ed5173c4a40837675d8282d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_3|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)+ P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"45\" width=\"525\" style=\"vertical-align: -17px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p> \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930, \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0926\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u0926\u094b\u0937\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0923 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Z \u0939\u094b\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-818d0f3336f855a1315d6a94f01d1876_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"\\begin{aligned}P(A_3|B)&amp;=\\cfrac{P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)+ P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=\\cfrac{0,04\\cdot 0,30}{0,05\\cdot 0,20+0,03\\cdot 0,50+0,04\\cdot 0,30}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=0,32\\end{aligned}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"151\" width=\"525\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p> \u0928\u093f\u0937\u094d\u0915\u0930\u094d\u0937\u0924\u0903, \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092f\u0926\u093f \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u0940\u0935\u093f\u091c\u0928 \u0916\u093c\u0930\u093e\u092c \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b \u0935\u0939 \u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0902\u0921 Z \u0939\u0948, 32% \u0939\u0948\u0964 <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"aplicaciones-del-teorema-de-bayes\"><\/span> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u0908 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0928\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n<ol style=\"color:#FF8A05; font-weight: bold;\">\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"> <span style=\"color:#101010;font-weight: normal;\"><strong>\u092e\u0947\u0921\u093f\u0915\u0932 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923<\/strong> : \u0921\u093e\u092f\u0917\u094d\u0928\u094b\u0938\u094d\u091f\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u092a\u093e\u0938 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u091a\u093f\u0915\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0938\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0938\u0930 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u090f\u091a\u0906\u0908\u0935\u0940 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u093e\u092e\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092f\u0926\u093f \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u0939\u0948 \u0924\u094b \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u093e\u092f\u0930\u0938 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"> <span style=\"color:#101010;font-weight: normal;\"><strong>\u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0923<\/strong> : \u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924 \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u0941\u091b \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0902, \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0938\u094d\u091f\u0949\u0915 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u0943\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f \u092f\u093e \u0915\u092e\u0940, \u0906\u0930\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0915 \u091a\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u090f\u0915 \u0938\u0947\u091f \u0926\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u0918\u091f\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0902\u0917\u0940\u0964<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"> <span style=\"color:#101010;font-weight: normal;\"><strong>\u092c\u093e\u091c\u093c\u093e\u0930 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0938\u0902\u0927\u093e\u0928<\/strong> : \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u092f\u0939 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0938\u0902\u092d\u0935 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0907\u0938 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0926 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u093f\u091c\u094d\u091e\u093e\u092a\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0926 \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0926 \u0916\u0930\u0940\u0926\u0947\u0917\u093e \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u0964<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"> <span style=\"color:#101010;font-weight: normal;\"><strong>\u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/strong> : \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u092e\u0949\u0921\u0932 \u092d\u0940 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u092f\u0939 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947 \u0917\u090f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0930 \u0926\u093f\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u092e\u094c\u0938\u092e \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0938\u091a \u0939\u094b\u0917\u093e\u0964 \u0907\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u091c\u0932\u0935\u093e\u092f\u0941 \u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u091f\u0940\u0915\u0924\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u0941\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"> <span style=\"color:#101010;font-weight: normal;\"><strong>\u0915\u0902\u092a\u094d\u092f\u0942\u091f\u0930 \u0938\u0941\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e<\/strong> &#8211; \u0938\u093e\u0907\u092c\u0930 \u0938\u0941\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u094b \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0932\u093e\u0917\u0942 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u090f\u0915 \u0938\u0902\u0926\u093f\u0917\u094d\u0927 \u0917\u0924\u093f\u0935\u093f\u0927\u093f \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u0902\u092a\u094d\u092f\u0942\u091f\u0930 \u0938\u093f\u0938\u094d\u091f\u092e \u092a\u0930 \u0939\u092e\u0932\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/span> <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"ejercicios-resueltos-del-teorema-de-bayes\"><\/span> \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0938\u092e\u0938\u094d\u092f\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0939\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0908\u0902<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"> \u0905\u092d\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0938 1<\/h3>\n<p> \u0910\u0938\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f 1% \u091c\u0928\u0938\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0928 \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u0940\u0921\u093c\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u090f\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092e\u093e\u092e\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f 95% \u0938\u091f\u0940\u0915 \u0914\u0930 \u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092e\u093e\u092e\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f 90% \u0938\u091f\u0940\u0915 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0926\u093f \u092f\u093e\u0926\u0943\u091a\u094d\u091b\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u091a\u0941\u0928\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0909\u0938\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0939\u0948? <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-otfm-box-spoiler-start otfm-sp__wrapper otfm-sp__box js-otfm-sp-box__closed otfm-sp__FFF8E1\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-expanded=\"false\" data-otfm-spc=\"#FFF8E1\" style=\"text-align:center\">\n<div class=\"otfm-sp__title\"> <strong>\u0938\u092e\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947\u0902<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0905\u092d\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0938 \u0915\u0925\u0928 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0928\u093f\u092e\u094d\u0928\u0932\u093f\u0916\u093f\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0926\u0947\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"> A <sub>1<\/sub> : \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 P(A <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.01<br \/> \u090f <sub>2<\/sub> : \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> )=0.99<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"> \u092c\u0940: \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u0939\u0948<br \/> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> : \u091c\u092c \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0939\u094b \u0924\u094b \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.95<br \/> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> : \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0924\u092c \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u092f\u0939 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> )=1-0.90=0.10<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u092b\u093f\u0930, \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f \u092f\u093e\u0926\u0943\u091a\u094d\u091b\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u091a\u0941\u0928\u0947 \u0917\u090f \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0915\u094b \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u092e \u0932\u093e\u0917\u0942 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u093f\u090f: <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c15e369635dcf17952b5d832a818d535_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_i|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_i)\\cdot P(A_i)}{\\displaystyle \\sum_{k=1}^n P(B|A_k)\\cdot P(A_k)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"77\" width=\"251\" style=\"vertical-align: -49px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d76df126cb6076aeba65aa7d1c12e344_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_1|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"45\" width=\"374\" style=\"vertical-align: -17px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0907\u0938\u0932\u093f\u090f \u0939\u092e \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093e\u092a\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-135e9ab7de6b44e7392fae0f5e70a125_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"\\begin{aligned}P(A_1|B)&amp;=\\cfrac{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=\\cfrac{0,95\\cdot 0,01}{0,95\\cdot 0,01+0,10\\cdot 0,99}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=0,0876\\end{aligned}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"151\" width=\"374\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0938\u0902\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092f\u0939 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u093f \u092f\u093e\u0926\u0943\u091a\u094d\u091b\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u0942\u092a \u0938\u0947 \u091a\u0941\u0928\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0935\u094d\u092f\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u0938\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u0939\u0948, 8.76% \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-otfm-box-spoiler-end otfm-sp_end\"><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"> \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092f\u093e\u092e 2<\/h3>\n<p> \u092f\u0939 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0932\u0917\u093e\u092f\u093e \u0917\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u0936\u0947\u092f\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u093f\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e 40% \u0939\u0948, \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0930\u0939\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e 10% \u0939\u0948, \u0914\u0930 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0917\u093f\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e 50% \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0932\u093e\u0935\u093e, \u0939\u092e \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u091c\u092c \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b 90% \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0924\u0940\u092f \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0917\u093e, \u0915\u093f \u091c\u092c \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0930\u0939\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0924\u094b \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u0940 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e 75% \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930\u093e\u0935\u091f \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0924\u093f \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u094b\u0917\u0940\u0964 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e 75% \u0939\u0948\u0964 85%%\u0964 \u092f\u0926\u093f \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093c\u093e\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930\u0947\u0917\u093e, \u0924\u094b \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u0915\u093f\u0924\u0928\u0940 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092f\u0939 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0917\u093f\u0930\u0947\u0917\u093e? <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-otfm-box-spoiler-start otfm-sp__wrapper otfm-sp__box js-otfm-sp-box__closed otfm-sp__FFF8E1\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-expanded=\"false\" data-otfm-spc=\"#FFF8E1\" style=\"text-align:center\">\n<div class=\"otfm-sp__title\"> <strong>\u0938\u092e\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947\u0902<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0907\u0938 \u092e\u093e\u092e\u0932\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u0905\u092d\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0938 \u0935\u093f\u0935\u0930\u0923 \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0928\u093f\u092e\u094d\u0928\u0932\u093f\u0916\u093f\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948:<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"> \u090f <sub>1<\/sub> : \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u093f\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.40<br \/> \u090f <sub>2<\/sub> : \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u093f\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0930\u0939\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> )=0.10<br \/> \u090f <sub>3<\/sub> : \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u090f\u0915 \u0926\u093f\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u090f <sub>3<\/sub> )=0.50<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"> \u092c\u0940: \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930 \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e<br \/> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> : \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u0928\u0947 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0935\u0943\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f \u0939\u094b\u0917\u0940 \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>1<\/sub> )=0.90<br \/> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> : \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u0928\u0947 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0930\u0939\u0947\u0917\u093e \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>2<\/sub> )=0.75<br \/> \u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>3<\/sub> : \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930 \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e \u2192 \u092a\u0940(\u092c\u0940|\u090f <sub>3<\/sub> )=0.85<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0907\u0938 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930 \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u0939 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u0939\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0906\u0935\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948: <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c15e369635dcf17952b5d832a818d535_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_i|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_i)\\cdot P(A_i)}{\\displaystyle \\sum_{k=1}^n P(B|A_k)\\cdot P(A_k)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"77\" width=\"251\" style=\"vertical-align: -49px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7c2b74ac3ed5173c4a40837675d8282d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"P(A_3|B)=\\cfrac{P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)+ P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"45\" width=\"525\" style=\"vertical-align: -17px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0939\u092e \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0924\u093f\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093e\u092a\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0923\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9f98a5a8a91299aa55aab02159dcebec_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"\\begin{aligned}P(A_3|B)&amp;=\\cfrac{P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}{P(B|A_1)\\cdot P(A_1)+P(B|A_2)\\cdot P(A_2)+ P(B|A_3)\\cdot P(A_3)}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=\\cfrac{0,85\\cdot 0,50}{0,90\\cdot 0,40+0,75\\cdot 0,10+0,85\\cdot 0,50}\\\\[2ex]&amp;=0,4942\\end{aligned}\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"151\" width=\"525\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"> \u0907\u0938\u0932\u093f\u090f, \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0932\u0947\u0937\u0915 \u0938\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u091c\u092c \u0935\u0947 \u0915\u0939\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0915\u093f \u0936\u0947\u092f\u0930 \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930 \u0917\u093f\u0930 \u091c\u093e\u090f\u0917\u093e 49.42% \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-otfm-box-spoiler-end otfm-sp_end\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u092f\u0939 \u0906\u0932\u0947\u0916 \u092c\u0924\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u093e\u0902\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0940 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0907\u0938\u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u093f\u0938 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u093e\u0930, \u0906\u092a \u091c\u093e\u0928\u0947\u0902\u0917\u0947 \u0915\u093f \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0942\u0924\u094d\u0930 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0939\u0932 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u0917\u090f \u0909\u0926\u093e\u0939\u0930\u0923 \u0914\u0930 \u0907\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092a\u094d\u0930\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f \u0915\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0939\u0948? \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e \u0938\u093f\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093e\u0902\u0924 \u092e\u0947\u0902, \u092c\u0947\u092f\u0938 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0947\u092f 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