{"id":1320,"date":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","slug":"perkiraan-excel-yang-naif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/","title":{"rendered":"Peramalan naif di excel: contoh langkah demi langkah"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Ramalan naif<\/strong> adalah ramalan yang ramalannya pada periode tertentu sama dengan nilai yang diamati pada periode sebelumnya.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Misalnya, kita mempunyai penjualan produk tertentu selama tiga bulan pertama tahun ini:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12910 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Perkiraan penjualan bulan April sama dengan penjualan aktual bulan Maret sebelumnya:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12911 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast2.png\" alt=\"Contoh ramalan yang naif\" width=\"285\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Meskipun metode ini sederhana, namun dalam praktiknya cenderung bekerja dengan sangat baik.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Tutorial ini memberikan contoh langkah demi langkah tentang cara melakukan peramalan naif di Excel.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Langkah 1: Masukkan datanya<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Pertama, kita akan memasukkan data penjualan selama periode 12 bulan di perusahaan imajiner:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12912 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"402\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Langkah 2: Buat perkiraan<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Selanjutnya, kita akan menggunakan rumus berikut untuk membuat perkiraan naif setiap bulan:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12913 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast4.png\" alt=\"Contoh perkiraan naif di Excel\" width=\"438\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Langkah 3: Ukur keakuratan perkiraan<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Terakhir, kita harus mengukur keakuratan perkiraan tersebut. Dua metrik umum yang digunakan untuk mengukur akurasi meliputi:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Berarti kesalahan absolut dalam persentase<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Berarti penyimpangan mutlak<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Gambar berikut menunjukkan cara menghitung rata-rata persentase kesalahan absolut:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12914 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Persentase kesalahan absolut rata-rata adalah <strong>9,9%<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Dan gambar berikut menunjukkan cara menghitung rata-rata deviasi absolut:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12915 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"\"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Deviasi rata-rata absolutnya adalah <strong>3,45<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Untuk mengetahui apakah ramalan ini berguna, kita dapat membandingkannya dengan model ramalan lainnya dan melihat apakah akurasi pengukurannya lebih baik atau lebih buruk.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ramalan naif adalah ramalan yang ramalannya pada periode tertentu sama dengan nilai yang diamati pada periode sebelumnya. Misalnya, kita mempunyai penjualan produk tertentu selama tiga bulan pertama tahun ini: Perkiraan penjualan bulan April sama dengan penjualan aktual bulan Maret sebelumnya: Meskipun metode ini sederhana, namun dalam praktiknya cenderung bekerja dengan sangat baik. Tutorial ini memberikan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Peramalan Naif di Excel: Contoh Langkah demi Langkah<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tutorial ini menjelaskan cara menghasilkan perkiraan naif di Excel, dengan contoh langkah demi langkah.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Peramalan Naif di Excel: Contoh Langkah demi Langkah\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tutorial ini menjelaskan cara menghasilkan perkiraan naif di Excel, dengan contoh langkah demi langkah.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Benjamin anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Ditulis oleh\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Benjamin anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimasi waktu membaca\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 menit\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/\",\"name\":\"Peramalan Naif di Excel: Contoh Langkah demi Langkah\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/#\/schema\/person\/3d17a1160dd2d052b7c78e502cb9ec81\"},\"description\":\"Tutorial ini menjelaskan cara menghasilkan perkiraan naif di Excel, dengan contoh langkah demi langkah.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"id\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/perkiraan-excel-yang-naif\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Peramalan naif di excel: contoh langkah demi langkah\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"Panduan anda untuk kompetensi statistik!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"id\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/#\/schema\/person\/3d17a1160dd2d052b7c78e502cb9ec81\",\"name\":\"Benjamin anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"id\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/statorials.org\/id\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Benjamin anderson\"},\"description\":\"Halo, saya Benjamin, pensiunan profesor statistika yang menjadi guru Statorial yang berdedikasi. 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