{"id":583,"date":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ja\/%e4%ba%8b%e5%be%8c%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:18:41","slug":"%e4%ba%8b%e5%be%8c%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ja\/%e4%ba%8b%e5%be%8c%e7%a2%ba%e7%8e%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387: \u5b9a\u7fa9 + \u4f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f<\/strong>\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u305f\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u3070\u304b\u308a\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u300cB\u300d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u300cA\u300d\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u8208\u5473\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3053\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u5f0f\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>P(A|B)<\/strong> = P(A) * P(B|A) \/ P(B)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u91d1\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B) = \u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 B \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3001\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 A \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3002 \u300c|\u300d\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002 \u00bb \u306f\u300c\u4e0e\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A) = \u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 A \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B) = \u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 B \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(B|A) = \u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 A \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3001\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 B \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4f8b: \u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u68ee\u6797\u306f 20% \u306e\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3068 80% \u306e\u30ab\u30a8\u30c7\u3067\u69cb\u6210\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u306e\u6728\u306e 90% \u306f\u5065\u5168\u3067\u3001\u30ab\u30a8\u30c7\u306e\u6728\u306f 50% \u3060\u3051\u304c\u5065\u5168\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u9060\u304f\u304b\u3089\u898b\u3066\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3069\u308c\u304f\u3089\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304b?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 B \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8 A \u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3068\u304a\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u601d\u3044\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) \/ P(B)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u3053\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u30aa\u30fc\u30af|\u5065\u5168) = P(\u30aa\u30fc\u30af) * P(\u5065\u5168|\u30aa\u30fc\u30af) \/ P(\u5065\u5168)<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u30aa\u30fc\u30af) = \u68ee\u6797\u5185\u306e\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u6728\u306e 20% \u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f<strong>0.2<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u5065\u5168) = \u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5168\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059: (0.20)*(0.9) + (0.8)*(0.5) = <strong>0.58<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(Healthy|Oak) = \u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u306e 90% \u304c\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f<strong>0.9<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u3053\u308c\u3089 3 \u3064\u306e\u6570\u5024\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">P(\u30aa\u30fc\u30af|\u5065\u5eb7) = P(\u30aa\u30fc\u30af) * P(\u5065\u5eb7|\u30aa\u30fc\u30af) \/ P(\u5065\u5eb7) = (0.2) * (0.9) \/ (0.58) = <strong>0.3103<\/strong> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u3053\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u76f4\u611f\u7684\u306b\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u30b0\u30ea\u30c3\u30c9\u304c\u3053\u306e 100 \u672c\u306e\u6728\u306e\u68ee\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u3061\u3087\u3046\u3069 20 \u672c\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u306e\u6728\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061 18 \u672c\u306f\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3059\u3002\u6b8b\u308a\u306e 80 \u672c\u306f\u30ab\u30a8\u30c7\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061 40 \u672c\u306f\u5065\u5eb7\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">(O = \u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3001M = \u30e1\u30fc\u30d7\u30eb\u3001\u7dd1 = \u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u8d64 = \u4e0d\u5065\u5eb7)<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5346 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/posterieur_prob0.png\" alt=\"\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4f8b\" width=\"326\" height=\"258\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u6728\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001\u3061\u3087\u3046\u3069 58 \u672c\u304c\u5065\u5168\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061 18 \u672c\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u306a\u6728\u3092\u9078\u629e\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f 18\/58 = <strong>0.3103<\/strong>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304b?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3001\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u306a\u3069\u3001\u5e45\u5e83\u3044\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u5165\u624b\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u3001\u4f55\u304b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u4ee5\u524d\u306e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3092\u66f4\u65b0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u524d\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u3001\u68ee\u306e\u4e2d\u306e\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u304c 20% \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u601d\u3044\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f<strong>\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387<\/strong>\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5358\u7d14\u306b\u6728\u3092\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306b\u9078\u629e\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306f 0.20 \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u9078\u629e\u3057\u305f\u6728\u304c\u5065\u5168\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u53d6\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u3053\u306e\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6728\u304c\u30aa\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306e<strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u304c<\/strong>0.3103 \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4eba\u3005\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u767a\u898b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u304c\u4ee5\u524d\u306e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3092\u66f4\u65b0\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d71\u8a08\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u751f\u6210\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u3092\u3088\u308a\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3088\u308a\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u305f\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u3070\u304b\u308a\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u300cB\u300d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u300cA\u300d\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u8208\u5473\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3053\u306e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u5f0f\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u8a08\u7b97 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-16"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387: \u5b9a\u7fa9 + \u4f8b - Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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