{"id":1628,"date":"2023-07-25T14:30:21","date_gmt":"2023-07-25T14:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/r%e1%84%8b%e1%85%b4-%e1%84%89%e1%85%ae%e1%86%ab%e1%84%8c%e1%85%b5%e1%86%ab%e1%84%92%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8\/"},"modified":"2023-07-25T14:30:21","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T14:30:21","slug":"r%e1%84%8b%e1%85%b4-%e1%84%89%e1%85%ae%e1%86%ab%e1%84%8c%e1%85%b5%e1%86%ab%e1%84%92%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/r%e1%84%8b%e1%85%b4-%e1%84%89%e1%85%ae%e1%86%ab%e1%84%8c%e1%85%b5%e1%86%ab%e1%84%92%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8\/","title":{"rendered":"R\uc5d0\uc11c \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95: \uc608\uc81c \ud3ec\ud568"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc740<\/strong> \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uc774\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uad00\ucc30\ub41c \uac12\uacfc \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc5f0\ub3c4\uc758 \uccab 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud310\ub9e4\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud574 \ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12910 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">4\uc6d4 \ub9e4\ucd9c \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \ub9e4\ucd9c\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12911 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast2.png\" alt=\"\uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc608\" width=\"285\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc774 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uac04\ub2e8\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 \ub180\ub77c\uc6b8 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc798 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc774 \ud29c\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc5bc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 R\uc5d0\uc11c \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e8\uacc4\ubcc4 \uc608\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1\ub2e8\uacc4: \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc785\ub825<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uba3c\uc800 \uac00\uc0c1 \ud68c\uc0ac\uc758 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \ud310\ub9e4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc785\ub825\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"background-color: #ececec; font-size: 15px;\"> <strong><span style=\"color: #008080;\">#create vector to hold actual sales data<\/span>\nactual &lt;- c(34, 37, 44, 47, 48, 48, 46, 43, 32, 27, 26, 24)\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2\ub2e8\uacc4: \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \uc0dd\uc131<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub2e4\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c, \ub2e4\uc74c \uacf5\uc2dd\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub9e4\uc6d4 \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"background-color: #ececec; font-size: 15px;\"> <strong><span style=\"color: #008080;\">#generate naive forecasts<\/span>\nforecast &lt;- c(NA, actual[- <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">length<\/span> (actual)])\n\n<span style=\"color: #008080;\">#view naive forecasts<\/span>\nforecast\n\n[1] NA 34 37 44 47 48 48 46 43 32 27 26\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc608\uce21 \uac12\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 <strong>NA\ub97c<\/strong> \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>3\ub2e8\uacc4: \uc608\uce21 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4 \uce21\uc815<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\uc758 \uc815\ud655\uc131\uc744 \uce21\uc815\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \uce21\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uce21\uc815\ud56d\ubaa9\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ud3c9\uade0 \uc808\ub300 \ubc31\ubd84\uc728 \uc624\ub958(MAPE)<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ud3c9\uade0 \uc808\ub300 \uc624\ucc28(MAE)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub2e4\uc74c \ucf54\ub4dc\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub450 \uce21\uc815\ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<pre style=\"background-color: #ececec; font-size: 15px;\"> <strong><span style=\"color: #008080;\">#calculate MAPE\n<\/span>mean(abs((actual-forecast)\/actual), na. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">rm<\/span> = <span style=\"color: #008000;\">T<\/span> ) * 100\n\n[1] 9.898281\n\n<span style=\"color: #008080;\">#calculate MAE\n<\/span>mean(abs(actual-forecast), na. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">rm<\/span> = <span style=\"color: #008000;\">T<\/span> )\n\n[1] 3.454545\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ud3c9\uade0 \uc808\ub300 \ubc31\ubd84\uc728 \uc624\ub958\ub294 <strong>9.898%<\/strong> \uc774\uace0 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc808\ub300 \uc624\ub958\ub294 <strong>3.45\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc774 \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c\uc9c0 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\ub824\uba74 \uc774\ub97c \ub2e4\ub978 \uc608\uce21 \ubaa8\ub378\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uc5ec \uce21\uc815 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740\uc9c0 \ub098\uc05c\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>4\ub2e8\uacc4: \uc608\uce21 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uac01 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud310\ub9e4\uc640 \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \ud310\ub9e4 \uc608\uce21 \uac04\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \uc120 \ub3c4\ud45c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span> <\/p>\n<pre style=\"background-color: #ececec; font-size: 15px;\"> <strong><span style=\"color: #008080;\">#plot actual sales\n<\/span>plot(actual, type=' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">l<\/span> ', col = ' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">red<\/span> ', main=' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">Actual vs. Forecasted Sales<\/span> ',\n     xlab=' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">Sales Period<\/span> ', ylab=' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">Sales<\/span> ')\n\n<span style=\"color: #008080;\">#add line for forecasted sales\n<\/span>lines(forecast, type=' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">l<\/span> ', col = ' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">blue<\/span> ')\n\n<span style=\"color: #008080;\">#add legend\n<\/span>legend(' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">topright<\/span> ', legend=c(' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">Actual<\/span> ', ' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">Forecasted<\/span> '),\n       col=c(' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">red<\/span> ', ' <span style=\"color: #008000;\">blue<\/span> '), lty=1)\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-16109 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naifr1.png\" alt=\"R\uc758 \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\" width=\"471\" height=\"467\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc608\uce21\ub41c \ud310\ub9e4 \ub77c\uc778\uc740 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e4\uc81c \ud310\ub9e4 \ub77c\uc778\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9\ub41c \ubc84\uc804\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ud604\uc7ac \uae30\uac04\uc758 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc774 \uc774\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc758 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\ucd94\uac00 \ub9ac\uc18c\uc2a4<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/r\u110b\u1174-\u1111\u1167\u11bc\u1100\u1172\u11ab-\u110c\u1165\u11af\u1103\u1162-\u110b\u1169\u1105\u1172\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">R\uc5d0\uc11c MAE\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95<\/a><br \/> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/r-\u110f\u1161\u1103\u1173\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">R\uc5d0\uc11c MAPE\ub97c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95<\/a><br \/> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MAPE\uc758 \uc88b\uc740 \uac00\uce58\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc785\ub2c8\uae4c?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uc774\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uad00\ucc30\ub41c \uac12\uacfc \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc5f0\ub3c4\uc758 \uccab 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud310\ub9e4\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud574 \ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ub9e4\ucd9c \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \ub9e4\ucd9c\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uac04\ub2e8\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 \ub180\ub77c\uc6b8 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc798 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud29c\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc5bc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 R\uc5d0\uc11c \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc5d0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-20"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>R\uc5d0\uc11c \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 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