{"id":586,"date":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a6%e1%86%a8%e1%84%89%e1%85%a6%e1%86%af-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8-%e1%84%80%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab%e1%84%80%e1%85%a7%e1%86%a8\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","slug":"%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a6%e1%86%a8%e1%84%89%e1%85%a6%e1%86%af-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8-%e1%84%80%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab%e1%84%80%e1%85%a7%e1%86%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a6%e1%86%a8%e1%84%89%e1%85%a6%e1%86%af-%e1%84%8b%e1%85%a8%e1%84%8e%e1%85%b3%e1%86%a8-%e1%84%80%e1%85%a1%e1%86%ab%e1%84%80%e1%85%a7%e1%86%a8\/","title":{"rendered":"Excel\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uad6c\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ud1b5\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/ko\/\u1110\u1169\u11bc\u1100\u1168\u1112\u1161\u11a8\u110b\u1173\u11ab-\u1100\u1161\u11ab\u1103\u1161\u11ab\u1112\u1161\u1100\u1169-\u110c\u1175\u11a8\u110c\u1165\u11b8\u110c\u1165\u11a8\u110b\u1175\u11ab-\u1107\u1161\u11bc\u1107\u1165\u11b8\u110b\u1173\u1105\u1169-\u1100\u1162\u1102\u1167\u11b7\u110b\u1173\u11af-\u1109\u1165\u11af\u1106\u1167\u11bc\u1112\u1161\u1106\u1173\u1105\u1169-\u1110\u1169\u11bc\u1100\u1168\u1105\u1173\u11af-\u1103\u1165-\u1109\u1171\u11b8\u1100\u1166-\u1107\u1162\u110b\u116e\u11af-\u1109\u116e-\u110b\u1175\u11bb\u1109\u1173\u11b8\u1102\u1175\u1103\u1161.\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\ub2e8\uc21c \uc120\ud615 \ud68c\uadc0\ub294<\/a> \uc608\uce21 \ubcc0\uc218 x\uc640 \ubc18\uc751 \ubcc0\uc218 y \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc218\ub7c9\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub2e8\uc21c \uc120\ud615 \ud68c\uadc0\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\uba74 x\uc640 y \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 &#8220;\ucd5c\uc801 \uc801\ud569\uc120&#8221;\uc744 \uc5bb\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc791\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 = <sub>b0<\/sub> + <sub>b1x<\/sub><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uae08:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177\ub294 \ubc18\uc751 \ubcc0\uc218\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uac12\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>0\uc740<\/sub> y \uc808\ud3b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>1<\/sub> \uc740 \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \ubcc0\uc218\uc758 \uac12\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 x <sub>0<\/sub> \uac12\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c <strong>\uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744<\/strong> \uad6c\uc131\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc774 \ucd5c\uc801\uc120\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uae30\ub97c \uc6d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc5d0\uc11c y\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \uac12\uc774 95% \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uac12 \u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> \uc8fc\uc704\uc758 \uad6c\uac04\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. x <sub>0<\/sub> \uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc774 \uac04\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uac12 x <sub>0<\/sub> \uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> +\/- t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2<\/sub> * se<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uae08:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">se = S <sub>yx<\/sub> \u221a(1 + 1\/n + (x <sub>0<\/sub> \u2013 <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> ) <sup>2<\/sup> \/SS <sub>x<\/sub> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uacf5\uc2dd\uc774 \uc870\uae08 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c Excel\uc5d0\uc11c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uac04\ub2e8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc218\uc2dd\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec Excel\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b9\uc815 \uac12\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uc608\ub97c \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\uc608: Excel\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uad6c\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub2e4\uc74c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc138\ud2b8\ub294 15\uba85\uc758 \ud559\uc0dd\uc774 \uc5bb\uc740 \uc2dc\ud5d8 \uc810\uc218\uc640 \uacf5\ubd80\ud55c \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5374 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/intervalle_de-prediction1.png\" alt=\"Excel\uc758 \uc608\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc138\ud2b8\" width=\"464\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 \uac12\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 95% \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, \uacf5\ubd80\ud558\ub294 \ud559\uc0dd\uc758 \uc2dc\ud5d8 \uc810\uc218\uac00 \uc774 \uad6c\uac04 \ub0b4\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc774 95%\uac00 \ub418\ub3c4\ub85d \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 3 \uc2dc\uac04.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\ub2e4\uc74c \uc2a4\ud06c\ub9b0\uc0f7\uc740 \uc774 \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \ub370 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac12\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\ucc38\uace0:<\/strong> <em>F<\/em> \uc5f4\uc758 \uc218\uc2dd\uc740<\/span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em>E<\/em> \uc5f4\uc758 \uac12\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c<\/span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uacc4\uc0b0\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5377 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/prediction_intervalle2-1.png\" alt=\"Excel\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\" width=\"570\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 \uac12\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 95% \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 <strong>(74.64, 86.90)<\/strong> \uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, 3\uc2dc\uac04 \uacf5\ubd80\ud55c \ud559\uc0dd\uc774 74.64~86.90 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uc810\uc218\ub97c \uc5bb\uc744 \ud655\ub960\uc744 95%\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\uc0ac\uc6a9\ub41c \uacc4\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \ucc38\uace0 \uc0ac\ud56d:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2<\/sub> \uc758 t \uc784\uacc4\uac12\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 95%\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc6d0\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \u03b1\/2 = 0.05\/2 = 0.25\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d(\uc608: 99% \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04) \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub354 \ub113\uc5b4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ub85c, \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \uc791\uc744\uc218\ub85d(\uc608: 90% \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04) \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub354 \uc881\uc544\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> \uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uac12\uc744 \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 <strong>=FORECAST()<\/strong> \uacf5\uc2dd\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc <strong>=FORECAST.LINEAR()<\/strong> \uacf5\uc2dd\uc740 \uc815\ud655\ud788 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uac12\uc744 \ubc18\ud658\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud1b5\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uc21c \uc120\ud615 \ud68c\uadc0\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \ubcc0\uc218 x\uc640 \ubc18\uc751 \ubcc0\uc218 y \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc218\ub7c9\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uc21c \uc120\ud615 \ud68c\uadc0\ub97c \uc218\ud589\ud558\uba74 x\uc640 y \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 &#8220;\ucd5c\uc801 \uc801\ud569\uc120&#8221;\uc744 \uc5bb\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc791\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u0177 = b0 + b1x \uae08: \u0177\ub294 \ubc18\uc751 \ubcc0\uc218\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uac12\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. b 0\uc740 y \uc808\ud3b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. b 1 \uc740 \ud68c\uadc0 \uacc4\uc218\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 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