{"id":601,"date":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/my\/heather-%e1%80%a1%e1%80%99%e1%80%be%e1%80%90%e1%80%ba\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:02:23","slug":"heather-%e1%80%a1%e1%80%99%e1%80%be%e1%80%90%e1%80%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/my\/heather-%e1%80%a1%e1%80%99%e1%80%be%e1%80%90%e1%80%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102c\u1018\u102c\u101c\u1032\u104b"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> \u101e\u100a\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u101b\u103e\u102d\u101e\u1031\u102c \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u104f \u1010\u102d\u1000\u103b\u1019\u103e\u102f\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1010\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1010\u102c\u101b\u1014\u103a\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a \u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1007\u101a\u102c\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u1019\u1000\u103a\u1011\u101b\u1005\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b \u101a\u1031\u1018\u102f\u101a\u103b\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u104f\u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1012\u103d\u102d\u101f\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u1031\u101e\u1031\u102c\u1021\u1001\u102b\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u101a\u1031\u1018\u102f\u101a\u103b\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a \u104e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f\u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u103a- \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u102c\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101e\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1019\u101f\u102f\u1010\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u102c\u1001\u103c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u1031\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a\u104a \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101c\u1031\u101d\u101e\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1000 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 90% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1021\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1010\u1000\u101a\u103a \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1010\u101a\u103a\u101c\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1005\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104b \u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1016\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1019\u103c\u1030\u101c\u102c\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u104d \u1024\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a-<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> = (f \u2013 o) \u1042<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n

\u101b\u103d\u103e\u1031-<\/span><\/p>\n

f = \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

o = \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a (\u1021\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1021\u1015\u103b\u1000\u103a \u1041 \u1001\u102f \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u103b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u104a \u1040 \u1019\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u103b\u103e\u1004\u103a)\u104a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1024\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a\u104a \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u104f Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a (0.9 \u2013 1) 2<\/sup> = -0.1 2<\/sup> = 0.01<\/strong> \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101c\u102d\u1019\u1037\u103a\u1019\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1021\u1000\u103c\u1036\u1015\u103c\u102f\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1005\u102f\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1021\u1000\u103c\u1036\u1015\u103c\u102f\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1001\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1005\u102e\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u104f \u1015\u103b\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103b\u103e\u1021\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1021\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a-<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> = 1\/n * \u03a3(f t<\/sub> \u2013 o t<\/sub> ) \u1042<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n

\u101b\u103d\u103e\u1031-<\/span><\/p>\n

n = \u1014\u1019\u1030\u1014\u102c\u1021\u101b\u103d\u101a\u103a\u1021\u1005\u102c\u1038 (\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1021\u101b\u1031\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2211 = \u201c\u1015\u1031\u102b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u201d \u101f\u102f \u1021\u1013\u102d\u1015\u1039\u1015\u102c\u101a\u103a\u101b\u101e\u1031\u102c \u1016\u1014\u103a\u1005\u102e\u101e\u1004\u103a\u1039\u1000\u1031\u1010\u104a<\/span><\/p>\n

f t<\/sub> = \u1021\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1021\u1015\u103b\u1000\u103a t<\/em> \u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

o = \u1015\u103d\u1032 t<\/em> \u1019\u103e\u102c \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a (1 \u1015\u103d\u1032\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101b\u1004\u103a 0 \u1019\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101b\u1004\u103a)\u104a<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a 0 \u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a 1 \u1021\u1000\u103c\u102c\u1038 \u1019\u100a\u103a\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a\u1010\u1014\u103a\u1016\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f\u1019\u1006\u102d\u102f \u101a\u1030\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104a 0 \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1031\u1021\u1000\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1006\u102f\u1036\u1038\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a 1 \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1031\u1021\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1006\u102f\u1036\u1038\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1014\u102d\u1019\u1037\u103a\u101c\u1031\u104a \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038 \u1015\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102d\u1000\u103b\u101c\u1031\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f \u1014\u1019\u1030\u1014\u102c\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1016\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1015\u103c\u1015\u102b\u1014\u1019\u1030\u1014\u102c\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102f\u1036\u1016\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1015\u103c\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c 1- \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1000 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 0% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u1031\u1010\u101a\u103a\u101c\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1010\u101a\u103a\u104b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (0 \u2013 1) 2<\/sup> = 1<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c 2- \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1000 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 100% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u1031\u1010\u101a\u103a\u101c\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1010\u101a\u103a\u104b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (1 \u2013 1) 2<\/sup> = 0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c 3- \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1000 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 27% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u1031\u1010\u101a\u103a\u101c\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1010\u101a\u103a\u104b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (0.27 \u2013 1) 2<\/sup> = 0.5329<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c 4- \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 97% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1019\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u101f\u102f \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1011\u102c\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (0.97 \u2013 0) 2<\/sup> = 0.9409<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c 5- \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101c\u1031\u101d\u101e\u1015\u100a\u102c\u101b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1026\u1038\u1000 \u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1015\u103c\u102f\u101c\u102f\u1015\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a-<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
27%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u1048\u1043%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1019\u101b\u103d\u102c<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
90%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1016\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1019\u103c\u1030\u101c\u102c\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u104d \u1024\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1005\u102f\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a-<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong><\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
27%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n (.\u1042\u1047-\u1041) \u1042<\/sup> = .\u1045\u1043\u1042\u1049<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n (.\u1046\u1047-\u1041) \u1042<\/sup> = .\u1041\u1040\u1048\u1049<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u1048\u1043%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1019\u101b\u103d\u102c<\/span><\/td>\n (.83-0) 2<\/sup> = .6889<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
90%<\/span><\/td>\n \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038<\/span><\/td>\n (.90-1) 2<\/sup> = .01<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (.5329 + .1089 + .6889 + .01) \/ 4 = 0.3352<\/strong> \u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier Skills \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Brier \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1000\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> \u101e\u100a\u103a \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u104f Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101c\u1000\u103a\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1019\u100a\u103a\u1019\u103b\u103e\u1000\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103d\u1014\u103a\u1000\u103c\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1021\u102c\u1038 \u1015\u103c\u1031\u102c\u1015\u103c\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u1019\u1000\u103a\u1011\u101b\u1005\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b \u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1021\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1000\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> = (BS E<\/sub> \u2013 BS N<\/sub> ) \/ BS E<\/sub><\/span><\/p>\n

\u101b\u103d\u103e\u1031-<\/span><\/p>\n

BS E<\/sub> = \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038\u101e\u102c\u1038\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u104f Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/span><\/p>\n

BS N<\/sub> = \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u104f Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1000\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1021\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u1018\u1031\u102c\u1006\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1000\u104a \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1015\u102d\u102f\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102d\u1000\u103b\u101e\u1031\u102c \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1015\u103c\u102f\u101c\u102f\u1015\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b Brier Skill Score \u101e\u100a\u103a \u1021\u1014\u102f\u1010\u103a\u101c\u1000\u1039\u1001\u100f\u102c\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u1031\u1015\u102b\u1000 \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1015\u102d\u102f\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1005\u1031\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b Brier Skill Score \u101e\u100a\u103a \u101e\u102f\u100a\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1000\u104a \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101c\u1000\u103a\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1011\u1000\u103a \u1010\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1010\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1015\u1031\u1038\u1005\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1019\u100a\u103a\u1019\u101f\u102f\u1010\u103a\u1015\u102b\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a\u104a \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f\u101c\u1000\u103a\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a BS E<\/sub> = 0.4221 \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a BS N<\/sub> = 0.3352 \u101b\u103e\u102d\u101e\u100a\u103a\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1005\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104b \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u104f Brier Skill Score \u1000\u102d\u102f \u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1021\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1015\u102b\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1000\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a<\/strong> = (0.4421 \u2013 0.3352) \/ (0.4421) = 0.2418<\/strong> \u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1024\u1014\u1036\u1015\u102b\u1010\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1021\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u1018\u1031\u102c\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103c\u1031\u102c\u1004\u1037\u103a\u104a \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101c\u1000\u103a\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a\u1014\u103e\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101a\u103e\u1009\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1000 \u1015\u102d\u102f\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102d\u1000\u103b\u101e\u1031\u102c\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1015\u1031\u1038\u1006\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1000\u103c\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u100a\u103d\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1015\u103c\u1015\u102b\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n

Brier \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1019\u103a\u1038\u1000\u103b\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a \u1019\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a\u1019\u102c\u1038\u101c\u1031\u104a \u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1021\u101e\u1005\u103a\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u101c\u1000\u103a\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1019\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1012\u101a\u103a\u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1014\u103e\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101a\u103e\u1009\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1000 \u1015\u102d\u102f\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1000\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103d\u1014\u103a\u101c\u102c\u1015\u102b\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a \u101e\u100a\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u101b\u103e\u102d\u101e\u1031\u102c \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u104f \u1010\u102d\u1000\u103b\u1019\u103e\u102f\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1010\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1010\u102c\u101b\u1014\u103a\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a \u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1007\u101a\u102c\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u1019\u1000\u103a\u1011\u101b\u1005\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b \u101a\u1031\u1018\u102f\u101a\u103b\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u104f\u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1012\u103d\u102d\u101f\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u1031\u101e\u1031\u102c\u1021\u1001\u102b\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u101a\u1031\u1018\u102f\u101a\u103b\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a \u104e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f\u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u103a- \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u102c\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101e\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1019\u101f\u102f\u1010\u103a \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u102c\u1001\u103c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u1031\u104b \u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a\u104a \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101c\u1031\u101d\u101e\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u1000 \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031 90% \u101b\u103e\u102d\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1021\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1010\u1000\u101a\u103a \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103d\u102c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1010\u101a\u103a\u101c\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u1015\u102b\u1005\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104b \u1021\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1015\u102b\u1016\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1019\u103c\u1030\u101c\u102c\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u104d \u1024\u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u103a\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037 \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u101e\u100a\u103a- Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a = (f \u2013 o) \u1042 \u101b\u103d\u103e\u1031- f = \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1001\u103c\u1031\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1001\u1014\u1037\u103a\u1019\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b o = \u101b\u101c\u1012\u103a (\u1021\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1021\u1015\u103b\u1000\u103a \u1041 \u1001\u102f \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u103b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u104a \u1040 \u1019\u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u101c\u103b\u103e\u1004\u103a)\u104a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102c\u1018\u102c\u101c\u1032\u104b - \u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1021\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u1000\u102d\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1002\u100f\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1021\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a\u1021\u1001\u102b \u1021\u1015\u102b\u1021\u101d\u1004\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u104f \u101b\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101e\u1031\u102c \u101b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1015\u103c\u1004\u103a \u104e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1014\u100a\u103a\u1038 \u1025\u1015\u1019\u102c\u1010\u1005\u103a\u1001\u102f\u104b\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/my\/heather-\u1021\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"my_MM\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u1006\u102d\u102f\u1010\u102c\u1018\u102c\u101c\u1032\u104b - \u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1021\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u1000\u102d\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1002\u100f\u1014\u103a\u1038\u1005\u102c\u101b\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1021\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1021\u101e\u102f\u1036\u1038\u1015\u103c\u102f\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a\u1021\u1001\u102b \u1021\u1015\u102b\u1021\u101d\u1004\u103a Brier \u101b\u1019\u103e\u1010\u103a\u104f \u101b\u102d\u102f\u1038\u101b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101e\u1031\u102c \u101b\u103e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u101c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1021\u1015\u103c\u1004\u103a 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