{"id":1318,"date":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","slug":"naiwne-prognozy-excela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/","title":{"rendered":"Naiwne prognozowanie w programie excel: przyk\u0142ad krok po kroku"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Prognoza naiwna<\/strong> to taka, w kt\u00f3rej prognoza na dany okres jest po prostu r\u00f3wna warto\u015bci obserwowanej w okresie poprzednim.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Za\u0142\u00f3\u017cmy przyk\u0142adowo, \u017ce w pierwszych trzech miesi\u0105cach roku mamy nast\u0119puj\u0105c\u0105 sprzeda\u017c danego produktu:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12910 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Prognoza sprzeda\u017cy na kwiecie\u0144 by\u0142aby po prostu r\u00f3wna rzeczywistej sprzeda\u017cy z poprzedniego marca:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12911 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast2.png\" alt=\"Przyk\u0142ad naiwnej prognozy\" width=\"285\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Chocia\u017c metoda ta jest prosta, w praktyce sprawdza si\u0119 zaskakuj\u0105co dobrze.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">W tym samouczku przedstawiono krok po kroku przyk\u0142ad przeprowadzania naiwnego prognozowania w programie Excel.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Krok 1: Wprowad\u017a dane<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Najpierw wprowadzimy dane sprzeda\u017cowe w wyimaginowanej firmie za okres 12 miesi\u0119cy:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12912 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"402\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Krok 2: Utw\u00f3rz prognoz\u0119<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Nast\u0119pnie u\u017cyjemy nast\u0119puj\u0105cych formu\u0142, aby utworzy\u0107 naiwne prognozy na ka\u017cdy miesi\u0105c:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12913 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast4.png\" alt=\"Naiwny przyk\u0142ad prognozy w Excelu\" width=\"438\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Krok 3: Zmierz dok\u0142adno\u015b\u0107 prognozy<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Na koniec musimy zmierzy\u0107 dok\u0142adno\u015b\u0107 prognoz. Dwie popularne metryki u\u017cywane do pomiaru dok\u0142adno\u015bci obejmuj\u0105:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u015aredni b\u0142\u0105d bezwzgl\u0119dny w procentach<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Oznacza odchylenie absolutne<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Poni\u017cszy obraz pokazuje, jak obliczy\u0107 \u015bredni bezwzgl\u0119dny b\u0142\u0105d procentowy:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12914 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u015aredni bezwzgl\u0119dny b\u0142\u0105d procentowy wynosi <strong>9,9%<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Poni\u017cszy obraz pokazuje, jak obliczy\u0107 \u015brednie odchylenie bezwzgl\u0119dne:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12915 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bezwzgl\u0119dne \u015brednie odchylenie wynosi <strong>3,45<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Aby dowiedzie\u0107 si\u0119, czy ta prognoza jest przydatna, mo\u017cemy por\u00f3wna\u0107 j\u0105 z innymi modelami prognostycznymi i sprawdzi\u0107, czy dok\u0142adno\u015b\u0107 pomiaru jest lepsza, czy gorsza.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prognoza naiwna to taka, w kt\u00f3rej prognoza na dany okres jest po prostu r\u00f3wna warto\u015bci obserwowanej w okresie poprzednim. Za\u0142\u00f3\u017cmy przyk\u0142adowo, \u017ce w pierwszych trzech miesi\u0105cach roku mamy nast\u0119puj\u0105c\u0105 sprzeda\u017c danego produktu: Prognoza sprzeda\u017cy na kwiecie\u0144 by\u0142aby po prostu r\u00f3wna rzeczywistej sprzeda\u017cy z poprzedniego marca: Chocia\u017c metoda ta jest prosta, w praktyce sprawdza si\u0119 zaskakuj\u0105co [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-przewodnik"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Naiwne prognozowanie w programie Excel: przyk\u0142ad krok po kroku<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"W tym samouczku wyja\u015bniono, jak utworzy\u0107 naiwn\u0105 prognoz\u0119 w programie Excel, na przyk\u0142adzie krok po kroku.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Naiwne prognozowanie w programie Excel: przyk\u0142ad krok po kroku\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"W tym samouczku wyja\u015bniono, jak utworzy\u0107 naiwn\u0105 prognoz\u0119 w programie Excel, na przyk\u0142adzie krok po kroku.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Benjamin Anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Napisane przez\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Benjamin Anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Szacowany czas czytania\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minuta\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/\",\"name\":\"Naiwne prognozowanie w programie Excel: przyk\u0142ad krok po kroku\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/#\/schema\/person\/6484727a4612df3e69f016c3129c6965\"},\"description\":\"W tym samouczku wyja\u015bniono, jak utworzy\u0107 naiwn\u0105 prognoz\u0119 w programie Excel, na przyk\u0142adzie krok po kroku.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"pl-PL\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/naiwne-prognozy-excela\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Dom\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Naiwne prognozowanie w programie excel: przyk\u0142ad krok po kroku\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"Tw\u00f3j przewodnik po kompetencjach statystycznych!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"pl-PL\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/#\/schema\/person\/6484727a4612df3e69f016c3129c6965\",\"name\":\"Benjamin Anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"pl-PL\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Benjamin Anderson\"},\"description\":\"Cze\u015b\u0107, jestem Benjamin i jestem emerytowanym profesorem statystyki, kt\u00f3ry zosta\u0142 oddanym nauczycielem Statorials. 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