{"id":1319,"date":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","slug":"previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/","title":{"rendered":"Previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no excel: exemplo passo a passo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Uma <strong>previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua<\/strong> \u00e9 aquela em que a previs\u00e3o para um determinado per\u00edodo \u00e9 simplesmente igual ao valor observado no per\u00edodo anterior.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Por exemplo, suponha que tenhamos as seguintes vendas de um determinado produto durante os primeiros tr\u00eas meses do ano:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12910 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A previs\u00e3o de vendas de abril seria simplesmente igual \u00e0s vendas reais de mar\u00e7o anterior:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12911 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast2.png\" alt=\"Exemplo de previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua\" width=\"285\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Embora esse m\u00e9todo seja simples, ele tende a funcionar surpreendentemente bem na pr\u00e1tica.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Este tutorial fornece um exemplo passo a passo de como realizar previs\u00f5es ing\u00eanuas no Excel.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Passo 1: Insira os dados<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Primeiro, inseriremos dados de vendas durante um per\u00edodo de 12 meses em uma empresa imagin\u00e1ria:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12912 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"402\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Etapa 2: crie a previs\u00e3o<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A seguir, usaremos as seguintes f\u00f3rmulas para criar previs\u00f5es ing\u00eanuas para cada m\u00eas:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12913 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast4.png\" alt=\"Exemplo de previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel\" width=\"438\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Etapa 3: medir a precis\u00e3o da previs\u00e3o<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Finalmente, devemos medir a precis\u00e3o das previs\u00f5es. Duas m\u00e9tricas comuns usadas para medir a precis\u00e3o incluem:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Erro absoluto m\u00e9dio em porcentagem<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Significa desvio absoluto<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A imagem a seguir mostra como calcular o erro percentual absoluto m\u00e9dio:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12914 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">O erro percentual absoluto m\u00e9dio \u00e9 de <strong>9,9%<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">E a imagem a seguir mostra como calcular o desvio m\u00e9dio absoluto:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12915 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">O desvio m\u00e9dio absoluto \u00e9 de <strong>3,45<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Para descobrir se esta previs\u00e3o \u00e9 \u00fatil, podemos compar\u00e1-la com outros modelos de previs\u00e3o e ver se a precis\u00e3o da medi\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 melhor ou pior.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uma previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua \u00e9 aquela em que a previs\u00e3o para um determinado per\u00edodo \u00e9 simplesmente igual ao valor observado no per\u00edodo anterior. Por exemplo, suponha que tenhamos as seguintes vendas de um determinado produto durante os primeiros tr\u00eas meses do ano: A previs\u00e3o de vendas de abril seria simplesmente igual \u00e0s vendas reais de mar\u00e7o [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-guia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel: exemplo passo a passo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Este tutorial explica como produzir uma previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel, com um exemplo passo a passo.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel: exemplo passo a passo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Este tutorial explica como produzir uma previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel, com um exemplo passo a passo.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. benjamim anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. benjamim anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo estimado de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minuto\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/\",\"name\":\"Previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel: exemplo passo a passo\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/#\/schema\/person\/e08f98e8db95e0aa9c310e1b27c9c666\"},\"description\":\"Este tutorial explica como produzir uma previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no Excel, com um exemplo passo a passo.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"pt-PT\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/previsoes-ingenuas-do-excel\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Lar\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Previs\u00e3o ing\u00eanua no excel: exemplo passo a passo\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"O seu guia para a literacia estat\u00edstica!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-PT\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/#\/schema\/person\/e08f98e8db95e0aa9c310e1b27c9c666\",\"name\":\"Dr. benjamim anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"pt-PT\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Dr. benjamim anderson\"},\"description\":\"Ol\u00e1, sou Benjamin, um professor aposentado de estat\u00edstica que se tornou professor dedicado na Statorials. 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