{"id":1320,"date":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/"},"modified":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T21:33:23","slug":"saf-excel-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Excel&#39;de naif tahmin: ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Saf bir tahmin,<\/strong> belirli bir d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin tahminin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6zlemlenen de\u011fere e\u015fit oldu\u011fu tahmindir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00d6rne\u011fin, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda belirli bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu varsayal\u0131m:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12910 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Nisan sat\u0131\u015f tahmini, \u00f6nceki Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na e\u015fit olacakt\u0131r:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12911 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast2.png\" alt=\"Saf tahmin \u00f6rne\u011fi\" width=\"285\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu y\u00f6ntem basit olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen pratikte \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede iyi sonu\u00e7 verme e\u011filimindedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu \u00f6\u011fretici, Excel&#8217;de basit tahminlerin nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bir \u00f6rnek sa\u011flar.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1. Ad\u0131m: Verileri girin<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0130lk olarak hayali bir \u015firkette 12 ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f verilerini girece\u011fiz:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12912 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"402\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2. Ad\u0131m: Tahmini olu\u015fturun<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Daha sonra, her ay i\u00e7in basit tahminler olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fclleri kullanaca\u011f\u0131z:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12913 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast4.png\" alt=\"Excel'deki basit tahmin \u00f6rne\u011fi\" width=\"438\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>3. Ad\u0131m: Tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Son olarak tahminlerin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7meliyiz. Do\u011frulu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan iki yayg\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm \u015funlar\u0131 i\u00e7erir:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Y\u00fczde olarak ortalama mutlak hata<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Mutlak sapma anlam\u0131na gelir<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki resimde ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmektedir:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12914 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131n\u0131n <strong>%9,9<\/strong> oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki resimde ortalama mutlak sapman\u0131n nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmektedir:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12915 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Mutlak ortalama sapma <strong>3,45<\/strong> olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu tahminin yararl\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in onu di\u011fer tahmin modelleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm do\u011frulu\u011funun daha iyi mi yoksa daha k\u00f6t\u00fc m\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saf bir tahmin, belirli bir d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin tahminin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6zlemlenen de\u011fere e\u015fit oldu\u011fu tahmindir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda belirli bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu varsayal\u0131m: Nisan sat\u0131\u015f tahmini, \u00f6nceki Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na e\u015fit olacakt\u0131r: Bu y\u00f6ntem basit olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen pratikte \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede iyi sonu\u00e7 verme e\u011filimindedir. Bu \u00f6\u011fretici, Excel&#8217;de basit tahminlerin nas\u0131l [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rehber"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Excel&#039;de Naif Tahmin: Ad\u0131m Ad\u0131m \u00d6rnek<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bu e\u011fitimde, ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bir \u00f6rnekle Excel&#039;de basit bir tahminin nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Excel&#039;de Naif Tahmin: Ad\u0131m Ad\u0131m \u00d6rnek\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bu e\u011fitimde, ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bir \u00f6rnekle Excel&#039;de basit bir tahminin nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/naive_forecast1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/\",\"name\":\"Excel&#39;de Naif Tahmin: Ad\u0131m Ad\u0131m \u00d6rnek\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-26T21:33:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\"},\"description\":\"Bu e\u011fitimde, ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bir \u00f6rnekle Excel&#39;de basit bir tahminin nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/saf-excel-tahminleri\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Ev\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Excel&#39;de naif tahmin: ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"\u0130statistik okuryazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rehberiniz!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\",\"name\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\"},\"description\":\"Merhaba, ben Benjamin, emekli bir istatistik profes\u00f6r\u00fc ve Statorials \u00f6\u011fretmenine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. \u0130statistik alan\u0131ndaki kapsaml\u0131 deneyimim ve uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131mla, \u00f6\u011frencilerimi Statorials arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bilgilerimi payla\u015fmaya can at\u0131yorum. 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