Objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> deneysel veya objektif kriterlere dayal\u0131 olarak bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren istatistiksel bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Basit\u00e7e s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k, bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in veri toplamaya ve mant\u0131\u011fa dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k her zaman 0 ile 1 aras\u0131nda bir say\u0131d\u0131r. Bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne kadar y\u00fcksekse, nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k da o kadar b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr; bunun tersine, bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne kadar azsa, nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar zay\u0131ft\u0131r. . <\/p>\n Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdikten sonra bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n iki farkl\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fine bakaca\u011f\u0131z. Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n anlam\u0131n\u0131 iyi anlaman\u0131z\u0131 istiyoruz, bu nedenle herhangi bir sorunuz varsa yorumlara yazmaktan \u00e7ekinmeyin.<\/p>\n Bir zar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda meydana gelebilecek olas\u0131 olaylar\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 mant\u0131k kullan\u0131larak \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu, nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00f6rne\u011fidir.<\/p>\n Zar\u0131n alt\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fc vard\u0131r ve aralar\u0131ndaki tek fark her iki taraftaki say\u0131d\u0131r. Yani, \u00f6rne\u011fin, 3 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 elde etmenin nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak istiyorsak, olumlu durumlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fc\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bir taraf\u0131 vard\u0131r) toplam olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131na (1, 2) b\u00f6leriz. , 3, 4, 5 ve 6):<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Yani objektif olarak konu\u015fursak, bir zar\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda alt\u0131da bir 3 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, yani %16,67’yi elde ederiz. Mant\u0131ksal olarak, e\u011fer sadece alt\u0131 zar atarsak, hi\u00e7 3 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 elde edemeyebiliriz, ancak uzun vadede, e\u011fer \u00e7ok fazla zar atarsak, bu say\u0131y\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %16,67 oran\u0131nda elde ederiz.<\/p>\n Bu nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplamas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda, kal\u0131b\u0131n hileli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcm y\u00fczlerin tam olarak ayn\u0131 oldu\u011fu, kal\u0131b\u0131n bir zirvesinin di\u011ferlerinden daha fazla a\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli hususlar\u0131n dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. ba\u015fka biri vb.<\/p>\n Profesyonel bir futbol tak\u0131m\u0131, \u015fut atan oyuncunun gol atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek ister. Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in, oyuncunun kul\u00fcpte ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi t\u00fcm sezonlar boyunca istatistiklerini analiz eder: 38’i at\u0131lan penalt\u0131lar dahil olmak \u00fczere al\u0131nan 47 penalt\u0131.<\/p>\n B\u00f6ylece toplanan verilerden oyuncunun penalt\u0131 atmas\u0131 veya penalt\u0131y\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde edebiliriz. Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in olay\u0131n meydana gelme say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 toplam g\u00f6zlem say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6leriz:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Bu durum objektif olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa bir ba\u015fka \u00f6rnektir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011feri hipotezlere, sezgilere veya ki\u015fisel duygulara de\u011fil, istatistiksel verilere yani ger\u00e7ek ger\u00e7eklere dayanmaktad\u0131r. <\/p>\n Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k kavram\u0131n\u0131 daha derinlemesine incelemeyi bitirmek i\u00e7in, iki t\u00fcr nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ay\u0131rt edilebilece\u011fine dikkat edilmelidir: teorik olas\u0131l\u0131k ve ampirik olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n Teorik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> mant\u0131\u011fa dayan\u0131r ve olas\u0131 t\u00fcm olaylar\u0131n e\u015fit derecede muhtemel oldu\u011funu kabul eder. \u00d6rne\u011fin, yukar\u0131da analiz etti\u011fimiz bir zar\u0131n yuvarlanmas\u0131 durumu teorik bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hesaplamay\u0131 bir deneyin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 kullanarak yapt\u0131k.<\/p>\n Ampirik olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> bir deney s\u0131ras\u0131nda toplanan verileri kullanarak nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplar. Penalt\u0131 at\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ilgili ikinci a\u00e7\u0131klanan durum ampirik olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa bir \u00f6rnektir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir oyuncunun istatistiklerinden hesaplad\u0131k. <\/p>\n Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k ile \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki fark,<\/strong> her olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn temelinde yatmaktad\u0131r: nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k, mant\u0131\u011fa ve deney sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dayan\u0131rken, \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k, bir uzman\u0131n uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin bir evin belirli bir fiyata sat\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 matematiksel modeller kullanarak hesaplamak \u00e7ok zordur, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu i\u015fi sizin ad\u0131n\u0131za yapmas\u0131 i\u00e7in genellikle sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7ok fazla deneyimi olan biri i\u015fe al\u0131n\u0131r. evin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en iyi \u015fekilde sat\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olun. fiyat. Bu durumda uzman, sat\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kendi bilgisi ve muhakemesine g\u00f6re belirler, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu subjektif bir olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n E\u011fer daha fazla ilgileniyorsan\u0131z, bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131klara ili\u015fkin daha fazla \u00f6rne\u011fi burada g\u00f6rebilirsiniz: <\/p>\n<\/span> Nesnel Olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00d6rnekleri<\/span><\/h2>\n
Bir zar at<\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Penalt\u0131 at\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/span> Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrleri<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/span> Nesnel ve \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h2>\n