S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> bir ki\u015finin deneyimine dayanarak bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren istatistiksel bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Yani subjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k, olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren ve bilgisine dayanarak bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen bir uzman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k her zaman 0 ile 1 aras\u0131nda bir say\u0131d\u0131r. S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ne kadar y\u00fcksekse, bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 o kadar y\u00fcksek olur; bunun tersine, s\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckse olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar azd\u0131r. \u00fcretmek. <\/p>\n S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak ne anlama geldi\u011fini tam olarak anlayabilmek i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n birka\u00e7 \u00f6rne\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin bir ki\u015fi, o b\u00f6lgedeki iklim deneyimine dayanarak yar\u0131n ya\u011fmur ya\u011fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa, bu subjektif bir olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc herhangi bir matematiksel hesaplama yapmamakta, sezgilerine g\u00fcvenmektedir.<\/p>\n S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa bir ba\u015fka \u00f6rnek de, profesyonel bir analistin \u00f6nceki deneyimlerine dayanarak bir tak\u0131m\u0131n kupa kazanma y\u00fczdesini belirlemesidir. Bu durumda analist gelece\u011fi tahmin etmek i\u00e7in herhangi bir matematiksel model kullanmaz, bunun yerine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sporla ilgili deneyimine ve bilgisine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bilinmesine y\u00f6nelik bu y\u00f6ntem, asl\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir hesaplama yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yarars\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Ancak subjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k, ba\u015fka kaynak bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya matematiksel model olu\u015fturman\u0131n \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011fu durumlarda \u00e7ok faydal\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ile objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki fark,<\/strong> her olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn temelinde yatmaktad\u0131r: S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k, uzman bilgisine ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131rken, objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k mant\u0131\u011fa dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir yaz\u0131 tura at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yaz\u0131 gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Madalyonun yaln\u0131zca iki y\u00fcz\u00fc oldu\u011fundan mant\u0131ksal olarak olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %50 oldu\u011fu sonucunu \u00e7\u0131karabiliriz.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in, form\u00fcl\u00fc olumlu durumlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n toplam olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesinden olu\u015fan Laplace yasas\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131r\u0131z. <\/p>\n Son olarak \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k ile frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunlar kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken iki kavramd\u0131r.<\/p>\n S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ile s\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki fark,<\/strong> \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir uzman\u0131n sezgisine dayanmas\u0131, s\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise bir deney yap\u0131lmas\u0131na ve bir olay\u0131n tekrarlanma s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesine dayanmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin bir basketbolcunun \u015fut atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek istersek, ge\u00e7en sezon att\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 istatistiksel olarak analiz edebilir ve toplanan verilerden ba\u015far\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elde edebiliriz. Bu durumda olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek i\u00e7in at\u0131\u015f\u0131n puanlanma s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131r\u0131z, yani bu bir frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Buraya t\u0131klayarak bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin daha fazla \u00f6rnek g\u00f6rebilirsiniz: <\/p>\n<\/span> \u00d6znel Olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00d6rnekleri<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/span> S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ve objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h2>\n
![\"P(\\text{cara})=\\cfrac{1}{2}=0,5\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-24700638f62e83613a39f2b566e2fb9c_l3.png\" "\\"Rendered")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/span> S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k ve frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n