A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u00f6rnek, Excel’de hareketli ortalama tahmininin nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/span><\/p>\n Bir i\u015fletmenin ard\u0131 ard\u0131na 20 g\u00fcn boyunca yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6steren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki veri setine sahip oldu\u011fumuzu varsayal\u0131m:<\/span> <\/p>\n Diyelim ki 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama tahmini hesaplamak istiyoruz.<\/span><\/p>\n Bu, bir sonraki g\u00fcn\u00fcn tahmin de\u011feri olarak \u00f6nceki 5 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama sat\u0131\u015f de\u011ferini kullanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in C8<\/strong> h\u00fccresine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fcl\u00fc yazabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>\n Daha sonra bu form\u00fcl\u00fc t\u0131klay\u0131p C s\u00fctunundaki kalan her h\u00fccreye s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebiliriz:<\/span> <\/p>\n C s\u00fctunundaki de\u011ferler, tahmin edilen 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama sat\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlerini temsil etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00d6rne\u011fin, 6.1.2023 tarihindeki tahmini sat\u0131\u015f de\u011feri 11’dir<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n Tahmin edilen de\u011ferlerimizin ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131\u015f de\u011ferleriyle ne kadar iyi e\u015fle\u015fti\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fcl\u00fc kullanan MAPE’yi<\/a> (ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131) hesaplayabiliriz:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n MAPE<\/strong> = (1\/n) * \u03a3(|ger\u00e7ek \u2013 tahmin| \/ |ger\u00e7ek|) * 100<\/span><\/p>\n Alt\u0131n:<\/span><\/p>\n MAPE, yorumlanmas\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 kolay oldu\u011fundan yayg\u0131n olarak kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin %11,5’lik bir MAPE de\u011feri, tahmin edilen de\u011ferler ile ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferler aras\u0131ndaki ortalama fark\u0131n %11,5 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n MAPE de\u011feri ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olursa, model de\u011ferleri o kadar iyi tahmin edebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n Bu tahmin modelinin MAPE’sini hesaplamak i\u00e7in D7<\/strong> h\u00fccresine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fcl\u00fc yazabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>\n Daha sonra bu form\u00fcl\u00fc t\u0131klay\u0131p D s\u00fctunundaki kalan her h\u00fccreye s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebiliriz:<\/span> <\/p>\n Son olarak, bu tahmin modelinin MAPE’sini almak i\u00e7in D22<\/strong> h\u00fccresine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fcl\u00fc yazabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>\n A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ekran g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc bu form\u00fcl\u00fcn pratikte nas\u0131l kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir:<\/span> <\/p>\n Bu modelin MAPE\u2019sinin %19,12<\/strong> civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n Bu bize 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f de\u011ferleri ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sat\u0131\u015f de\u011ferleri aras\u0131ndaki ortalama fark\u0131n %19,12 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Dilersek daha sonra bu tahminin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir MAPE de\u011ferine yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama tahmini gibi farkl\u0131 bir aral\u0131k kullanarak bu i\u015flemi tekrarlayabiliriz.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki e\u011fitimlerde Excel’deki di\u011fer ortak g\u00f6revlerin nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r:<\/span><\/p>\n Excel’de A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Hareketli Ortalama Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r<\/a> Hareketli ortalama tahmini, bir sonraki d\u00f6nemin de\u011ferini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki birka\u00e7 d\u00f6nemin hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u00f6rnek, Excel’de hareketli ortalama tahmininin nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. \u00d6rnek: Excel’de Hareketli Ortalama Tahmini Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r? Bir i\u015fletmenin ard\u0131 ard\u0131na 20 g\u00fcn boyunca yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6steren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki veri setine sahip oldu\u011fumuzu varsayal\u0131m: Diyelim ki 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rehber"],"yoast_head":"\n \u00d6rnek: Excel’de Hareketli Ortalama Tahmini Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/jour1.png\")
<\/p>\n =AVERAGE( B2:B6<\/span> )\n<\/strong><\/span><\/pre>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/maf1.png\")
<\/p>\n\n
=ABS( B7<\/span> - C7<\/span> )\/ B7<\/span> *100<\/strong><\/pre>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/maf2.png\")
<\/p>\n =AVERAGE( D7:D21<\/span> )<\/b><\/pre>\n![\"Excel](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/maf3.png\")
<\/p>\n Ek kaynaklar<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
Excel’de K\u00fcm\u00fclatif Ortalama Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r?<\/a>
Excel’de \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"