Var olan t\u00fcm olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrleri \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n
- \n
- objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n
- \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n
- klasik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n
- frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/li>\n
- \u015fartl\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Bal\u0131k \u015fans\u0131<\/strong><\/li>\n
- binom olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Hipergeometrik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n
- basit \u015fans<\/strong><\/li>\n
- bile\u015fik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u00c7ok geni\u015f bir kavram oldu\u011fundan ve farkl\u0131 kriterler kullan\u0131larak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131labildi\u011finden, olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrlerinin baz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmalar\u0131nda matematiksel olas\u0131l\u0131k veya mant\u0131ksal olas\u0131l\u0131k gibi ba\u015fka t\u00fcrleri de g\u00f6rebilirsiniz. Ancak ger\u00e7ekte bu sayfadaki listeye bu di\u011fer olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrleri de dahil edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Mant\u0131ksal olarak, her olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ad\u0131 ile her t\u00fcr\u00fcn ne oldu\u011funu bilemezsiniz, bu nedenle her birini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
<\/span> objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h3>\n
Objektif olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> bir olay\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in objektif kriterlere dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin bulutlu bir g\u00fcnde ya\u011fmur ya\u011fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 objektif olarak hesaplamak istiyorsak istatistiksel bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yapmam\u0131z gerekir. Son 30 bulutlu g\u00fcn\u00fc ve 17 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u011fmurlu oldu\u011funu analiz etti\u011fimizi ve nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu \u015fekilde hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
![\"P(\\text{lluvia})=\\cfrac{17}{30}=0,567\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-425b5dd732312e1ec9afb03fb2fe0036_l3.png\" "\\"Rendered")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nG\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi objektif olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in kimsenin fikrine g\u00fcvenmedik, bunun yerine bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 temel alarak ve sonu\u00e7lardan olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplad\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Benzer \u015fekilde nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k da di\u011fer iki t\u00fcre ayr\u0131l\u0131r: teorik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> ve ampirik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> . Aralar\u0131ndaki farklar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in buray\u0131 t\u0131klay\u0131n: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcrleri<\/a><\/div>\n<\/span> \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h3>\n
S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> ki\u015finin bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etme deneyimine, yani s\u00fcbjektif kriterlere dayanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin, yar\u0131n ya\u011fmur ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131na dair s\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu konudaki bilgi ve deneyimine g\u00fcvenecek bir meteorologdan s\u00f6z konusu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirlemesini isteyerek elde edebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k, nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tersidir.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131klara ili\u015fkin daha fazla \u00f6rne\u011fi burada g\u00f6rebilirsiniz: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> S\u00fcbjektif olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6rnekleri<\/a><\/div>\n<\/span> klasik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h3>\n
A priori olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131lan klasik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> , bir olay\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in mant\u0131\u011fa dayan\u0131r, yani teorik bir olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplamas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin, “4 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zar at\u0131\u015f\u0131nda atma”<\/em> olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek i\u00e7in herhangi bir deney yapmam\u0131za gerek yoktur. Zar\u0131n alt\u0131 farkl\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fc oldu\u011fundan verilen say\u0131n\u0131n gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 1\/6 olacakt\u0131r:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
![\"P(\\text{n\\'umero](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bbb3f86d832892e8a648687d01def814_l3.png\" "\\"Rendered")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nAncak bu sadece teorik bir hesaplamad\u0131r, yani belki bir zar\u0131 on kez atar\u0131z ve d\u00f6rt gelmeyiz veya tam tersi, on at\u0131\u015ftan d\u00f6rt say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n
\u0130lginizi \u00e7ekerse, bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131klarla ilgili makalemizi size b\u0131rak\u0131yorum: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Klasik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/span> Frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/span><\/h3>\n
S\u0131k<\/strong> olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131lan frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> , rastgele bir deneydeki temel bir olay i\u00e7in uzun vadeli beklenen ba\u011f\u0131l frekanst\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bir olay\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in deneyin \u00e7ok say\u0131da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve elde edilen olumlu durumlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen toplam tekrar say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131 nesnel olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa \u00e7ok benzer, ancak aradaki fark, frekans olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayn\u0131 deneyin binlerce kez tekrarlanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Tam bir \u00f6rne\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ba\u011flant\u0131da g\u00f6rebilirsiniz: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f Frekans Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00d6rnekleri<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/span> \u015eartl\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h3>\n
Ko\u015fullu olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131lan ko\u015fullu<\/strong> olas\u0131l\u0131k, ba\u015fka bir B olay\u0131n\u0131n meydana gelmesi durumunda A olay\u0131n\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtir. Bu nedenle ko\u015fullu olas\u0131l\u0131k yaln\u0131zca olay\u0131n kendisini de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6nceki olaylar\u0131 da hesaba katar.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 biraz daha zordur ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hesaplanmas\u0131 da daha zordur. Bu y\u00fczden nas\u0131l hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6z atman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririm: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Ko\u015fullu Olas\u0131l\u0131k Form\u00fcl\u00fc<\/a><\/div>\n<\/span>Bal\u0131k \u015fans\u0131<\/span><\/h3>\n
Poisson olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131,<\/strong> belirli bir zaman diliminde belirli say\u0131da olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131k, olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funda \u00e7ok faydal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bu t\u00fcr olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tan\u0131mlayan fonksiyondur. Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m form\u00fcl\u00fcne a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ba\u011flant\u0131dan ula\u015fabilirsiniz: <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Bal\u0131k da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m form\u00fcl\u00fc<\/a><\/div>\n<\/span> Binom olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/span><\/h3>\n
Binom olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> , “ba\u015far\u0131” ve “ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k” diyece\u011fimiz yaln\u0131zca iki olas\u0131 sonucun oldu\u011fu olaylar\u0131 matematiksel olarak tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin, bir yaz\u0131 tura att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda yaln\u0131zca iki olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 vard\u0131r (tura veya yaz\u0131). E\u011fer tura se\u00e7ersek, ba\u015far\u0131 durumumuz paran\u0131n \u00fczerinde tura g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olacakt\u0131r, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k durumumuz ise paran\u0131n \u00fczerinde tura g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yani binom da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bize bir dizideki belirli say\u0131da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 durumun olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yler. <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Binom da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m form\u00fcl\u00fc<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/span> Hipergeometrik olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/h3>\n
Hipergeometrik olas\u0131l\u0131k, binom olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa \u00e7ok benzer, ancak yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmede farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Hipergeometrik olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> bir pop\u00fclasyondan n<\/em> \u00f6\u011fe de\u011fi\u015ftirilmeden rastgele bir \u00e7\u0131karma i\u015flemindeki ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 vaka say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hipergeometrik olas\u0131l\u0131k, hipergeometrik da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mla tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. <\/p>\n
\u27a4<\/span> Bak\u0131n\u0131z:<\/strong> Hipergeometrik da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6zellikleri<\/a><\/div>\n<\/span>Basit \u015fans<\/span><\/h3>\n
Basit olas\u0131l\u0131k,<\/strong> \u00f6rnek uzayda basit bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Basit olas\u0131l\u0131k, bir deneydeki olumlu durumlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, deneyin olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n toplam say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesiyle hesaplan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
![\"](\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-47eefb1b0f197dfabcdb701b4858c3b5_l3.png\" "\\"Rendered")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nBu s\u00f6zde Laplace kural\u0131d\u0131r. Bu form\u00fcl\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca \u00f6rnek uzaydaki t\u00fcm olaylar\u0131n ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131, yani e\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u00f6rnek uzay olmas\u0131 durumunda kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini unutmay\u0131n. <\/p>\n
- \u00f6znel olas\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong><\/li>\n