{"id":529,"date":"2023-07-29T14:54:06","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T14:54:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T14:54:06","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T14:54:06","slug":"tahmin-araligi-r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/","title":{"rendered":"R'de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

Do\u011frusal bir regresyon modeli iki \u015fey i\u00e7in yararl\u0131 olabilir:<\/span><\/p>\n

(1)<\/strong> Bir veya daha fazla yorday\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fken ile bir yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>\n

(2)<\/b> Gelecekteki de\u011ferleri tahmin etmek i\u00e7in modeli kullan\u0131n.<\/span><\/p>\n

(2)<\/strong> ile ilgili olarak, gelecekteki de\u011ferleri tahmin etmek i\u00e7in bir regresyon modeli kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, genellikle hem kesin bir de\u011feri<\/em> hem de bir dizi olas\u0131 de\u011fer i\u00e7eren bir aral\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/em> tahmin etmek isteriz. Bu aral\u0131\u011fa tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> denir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6rne\u011fin, yorday\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fken olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saatleri<\/em> ve yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni olarak s\u0131nav puanlar\u0131n\u0131<\/em> kullanarak basit bir do\u011frusal regresyon modeli uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 varsayal\u0131m. Bu modeli kullanarak 6 saat ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir \u00f6\u011frencinin s\u0131navdan 91<\/strong> puan alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ancak bu tahmin etraf\u0131nda belirsizlik oldu\u011fundan, 6 saat \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir \u00f6\u011frencinin 85<\/strong> ile 97<\/strong> aras\u0131nda bir s\u0131nav puan\u0131 elde etme ihtimalinin %95 oldu\u011funu belirten bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturabiliriz. Bu de\u011fer aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %95 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak bilinir ve bizim i\u00e7in genellikle tam tahmin edilen de\u011feri bilmekten daha faydal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

R’de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

R’de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in, birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 araban\u0131n \u00f6zellikleri hakk\u0131nda bilgi i\u00e7eren yerle\u015fik mtcars<\/em> veri k\u00fcmesini kullanaca\u011f\u0131z:<\/span><\/p>\n

 #view first six rows of<\/span> mtcars<\/em><\/span>\nhead(mtcars)\n\n# mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb\n#Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4\n#Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4\n#Datsun 710 22.8 4 108 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1\n#Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 0 3 1\n#Hornet Sportabout 18.7 8 360 175 3.15 3.440 17.02 0 0 3 2\n#Valiant 18.1 6 225 105 2.76 3.460 20.22 1 0 3 1\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n
 \u00d6ncelikle disp’i<\/em> tahmin de\u011fi\u015fkeni ve mpg’yi<\/em> yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni olarak kullanarak basit bir do\u011frusal regresyon modeli uygulayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>\n
 #fit simple linear regression model<\/span>\nmodel <- lm(mpg ~ disp, data = mtcars)\n\n#view summary of fitted model<\/span>\nsummary(model)\n\n#Call:\n#lm(formula = mpg ~ availability, data = mtcars)\n#\n#Residuals:\n# Min 1Q Median 3Q Max \n#-4.8922 -2.2022 -0.9631 1.6272 7.2305 \n#\n#Coefficients:\n#Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    \n#(Intercept) 29.599855 1.229720 24.070 < 2e-16 ***\n#disp -0.041215 0.004712 -8.747 9.38e-10 ***\n#---\n#Significant. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1\n#\n#Residual standard error: 3.251 on 30 degrees of freedom\n#Multiple R-squared: 0.7183, Adjusted R-squared: 0.709 \n#F-statistic: 76.51 on 1 and 30 DF, p-value: 9.38e-10\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n
 Daha sonra disp<\/em> i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 yeni de\u011fere dayal\u0131 olarak mpg<\/em> de\u011ferini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in uygun regresyon modelini kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>\n
 #create data frame with three new values for<\/span> avail\n<\/span><\/em>new_disp <- data.frame(disp= c(150, 200, 250))\n\n#use the fitted model to predict the value for mpg<\/em><\/span> based on the three new values<\/span>\n#for<\/span> avail<\/span>\n<\/em>predict(model, newdata = new_disp)\n\n#1 2 3 \n#23.41759 21.35683 19.29607 \n<\/strong><\/pre>\n
 Bu de\u011ferleri yorumlaman\u0131n yolu \u015fu \u015fekildedir:<\/span><\/p>\n
    \n
  •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 150 olan yeni bir araban\u0131n mpg’sinin<\/em> 23,41759<\/strong> olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/span><\/li>\n
  •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 200 olan yeni bir araban\u0131n mpg’sinin<\/em> 21,35683<\/strong> olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/span><\/li>\n
  •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 250 olan yeni bir araban\u0131n mpg’sinin<\/em> 19,29607<\/strong> olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
     Daha sonra, bu tahmin edilen de\u011ferler etraf\u0131nda tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in uygun regresyon modelini kullanaca\u011f\u0131z:<\/span><\/p>\n
     #create prediction intervals around the predicted values<\/span>\npredict(model, newdata = new_disp, interval = \" predict<\/span> \")<\/span>\n\n# fit lwr upr\n#1 23.41759 16.62968 30.20549\n#2 21.35683 14.60704 28.10662\n#3 19.29607 12.55021 26.04194\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n
     Bu de\u011ferleri yorumlaman\u0131n yolu \u015fu \u015fekildedir:<\/span><\/p>\n
      \n
    •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 150 olan bir araba i\u00e7in %95 mpg<\/em> tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 16,62968<\/strong> ile 30,20549<\/strong> aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
    •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 200 olan bir araba i\u00e7in %95 mpg<\/em> tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 14,60704<\/b> ile 28,10662<\/strong> aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
    •  EPA’s\u0131<\/em> 250 olan bir araba i\u00e7in %95 mpg<\/em> tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 12,55021<\/b> ile 26,04194<\/strong> aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
       Varsay\u0131lan olarak R %95’lik bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131r. Ancak bunu seviye<\/strong> komutunu kullanarak istedi\u011fimiz gibi de\u011fi\u015ftirebiliriz. \u00d6rne\u011fin, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki kod %99 tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir:<\/span><\/p>\n
       #create 99% prediction intervals around the predicted values\n<\/span>predict(model, newdata = new_disp, interval = \" predict<\/span> \", level = 0.99<\/span><\/span><\/span> )<\/span>\n\n# fit lwr upr\n#1 23.41759 14.27742 32.55775\n#2 21.35683 12.26799 30.44567\n#3 19.29607 10.21252 28.37963\n<\/strong><\/pre>\n
       %99 tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n %95 tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f oldu\u011funu unutmay\u0131n. Bu mant\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc aral\u0131k ne kadar geni\u015f olursa tahmin edilen de\u011feri i\u00e7erme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar artar.<\/span><\/p>\n
       R’de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rselle\u015ftirilir<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
       A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki kod, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki i\u015flevlere sahip bir grafi\u011fin nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir:<\/span><\/p>\n
        \n
      •  Kullan\u0131labilirlik<\/em> ve mpg<\/em> i\u00e7in veri noktalar\u0131n\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m grafi\u011fi<\/span><\/li>\n
      •  Tak\u0131lan regresyon \u00e7izgisi i\u00e7in mavi bir \u00e7izgi<\/span><\/li>\n
      •  Gri g\u00fcven bantlar\u0131<\/span><\/li>\n
      •  K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 tahmin bantlar\u0131<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
         #define dataset<\/span>\ndata <- mtcars[, c(\"mpg\", \"disp\")]\n\n#create simple linear regression model\n<\/span>model <- lm(mpg ~ disp, data = mtcars)\n\n#use model to create prediction intervals\n<\/span>predictions <- predict(model, interval = \" predict<\/span> \")\n\n#create dataset that contains original data along with prediction intervals\n<\/span>all_data <- cbind(data, predictions)\n\n#load ggplot2<\/em> library\n<\/span>library(ggplot2)\n\n#createplot\n<\/span>ggplot(all_data, aes(x = disp, y = mpg)) + #define x and y axis variables<\/span>\n  geom_point() + #add scatterplot points<\/span>\n  stat_smooth(method = lm) + #confidence bands<\/span>\n  geom_line(aes(y = lwr), col = \"coral2\", linetype = \"dashed\") + #lwr pred interval<\/span>\n  geom_line(aes(y = upr), col = \"coral2\", linetype = \"dashed\") #upr pred interval<\/span><\/strong><\/pre>\n
         Tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcven aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne zaman kullan\u0131lmal\u0131?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n
         Tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131,<\/strong> tek bir de\u011fer etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi yakalar. Bir g\u00fcven aral\u0131\u011f\u0131,<\/strong> tahmin edilen ortalama de\u011ferler etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi yakalar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ayn\u0131 de\u011fer i\u00e7in tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 her zaman g\u00fcven aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n
         Belirli bireysel tahminlerle ilgilendi\u011finizde bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 kullanmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir g\u00fcven aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok dar bir de\u011fer aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretecek ve bu da aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n ger\u00e7ek de\u011feri i\u00e7ermeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
        Do\u011frusal bir regresyon modeli iki \u015fey i\u00e7in yararl\u0131 olabilir: (1) Bir veya daha fazla yorday\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fken ile bir yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcn. (2) Gelecekteki de\u011ferleri tahmin etmek i\u00e7in modeli kullan\u0131n. (2) ile ilgili olarak, gelecekteki de\u011ferleri tahmin etmek i\u00e7in bir regresyon modeli kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, genellikle hem kesin bir de\u011feri hem de bir dizi olas\u0131 de\u011fer […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rehber"],"yoast_head":"\nR - Statorialsde tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bu e\u011fitimde R'de kolayca bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"R - Statorialsde tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bu e\u011fitimde R'de kolayca bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-29T14:54:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/\",\"name\":\"R - Statorialsde tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-29T14:54:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-29T14:54:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\"},\"description\":\"Bu e\u011fitimde R'de kolayca bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/tahmin-araligi-r\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Ev\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"R'de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"\u0130statistik okuryazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rehberiniz!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\",\"name\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\"},\"description\":\"Merhaba, ben Benjamin, emekli bir istatistik profes\u00f6r\u00fc ve Statorials \u00f6\u011fretmenine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. \u0130statistik alan\u0131ndaki kapsaml\u0131 deneyimim ve uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131mla, \u00f6\u011frencilerimi Statorials arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bilgilerimi payla\u015fmaya can at\u0131yorum. 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