{"id":589,"date":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T10:06:39","slug":"excel-tahmin-araligi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/","title":{"rendered":"Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0130statistikte basit do\u011frusal regresyon , tahmin de\u011fi\u015fkeni x ile yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni y aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullanabilece\u011fimiz bir tekniktir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Basit bir do\u011frusal regresyon uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, x ile y aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi tan\u0131mlayan ve \u015fu \u015fekilde yaz\u0131labilen bir &#8220;en iyi uyum \u00e7izgisi&#8221; elde ederiz:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 = b <sub>0<\/sub> + b <sub>1<\/sub> x<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Alt\u0131n:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeninin tahmin edilen de\u011feridir<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>0<\/sub> y kesme noktas\u0131d\u0131r<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">b <sub>1<\/sub> regresyon katsay\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x, tahmin de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de\u011feridir<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bazen belirli bir x <sub>0<\/sub> de\u011feri i\u00e7in bir <strong>tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bu en iyi uyum \u00e7izgisini kullanmak isteriz; bu, tahmin edilen de\u011fer \u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> civar\u0131nda bir aral\u0131kt\u0131r, \u00f6yle ki pop\u00fclasyondaki y&#8217;nin ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferinin %95 olma ihtimali vard\u0131r. x <sub>0&#8217;a<\/sub> kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen de\u011fer bu aral\u0131\u011fa dahildir.<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Belirli bir x <sub>0<\/sub> de\u011feri i\u00e7in tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplama form\u00fcl\u00fc yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> +\/- t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2<\/sub> * se<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Alt\u0131n:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">se = S <sub>yx<\/sub> \u221a(1 + 1\/n + (x <sub>0<\/sub> \u2013 <span style=\"text-decoration: overline;\">x<\/span> ) <sup>2<\/sup> \/SS <sub>x<\/sub> )<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Form\u00fcl biraz korkutucu g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir ancak Excel&#8217;de hesaplanmas\u0131 asl\u0131nda basittir. Daha sonra, Excel&#8217;de belirli bir de\u011fere ili\u015fkin tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in bu form\u00fcl\u00fc kullanman\u0131n bir \u00f6rne\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u00d6rnek: Excel&#8217;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki veri seti, 15 farkl\u0131 \u00f6\u011frencinin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131nav puan\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6stermektedir:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5374 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/intervalle_de-prediction1.png\" alt=\"Excel'deki \u00d6rnek Veri K\u00fcmesi\" width=\"464\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Diyelim ki x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 de\u011feri i\u00e7in %95&#8217;lik bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturmak istiyoruz. Yani, s\u0131nava giren bir \u00f6\u011frencinin s\u0131nav puan\u0131n\u0131n bu aral\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %95 olacak \u015fekilde bir aral\u0131k olu\u015fturmak istiyoruz. 3 saat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ekran g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc, bu tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 elde etmek i\u00e7in gereken t\u00fcm de\u011ferlerin nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Not:<\/strong> <em>F<\/em> s\u00fctunundaki form\u00fcller,<\/span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em>E<\/em> s\u00fctunundaki de\u011ferlerin nas\u0131l<\/span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5377 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/prediction_intervalle2-1.png\" alt=\"Excel'de bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r\" width=\"570\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">x <sub>0<\/sub> = 3 de\u011feri i\u00e7in %95 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 <strong>(74,64, 86,90)&#8217;<\/strong> dir. Yani 3 saat ders \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir \u00f6\u011frencinin 74,64 ile 86,90 aras\u0131nda puan alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %95 olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Kullan\u0131lan hesaplamalara ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 notlar:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">t <sub>\u03b1\/2,df=n-2&#8217;nin<\/sub> t-kritik de\u011ferini hesaplamak i\u00e7in %95&#8217;lik bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 istedi\u011fimizden \u03b1\/2 = 0,05\/2 = 0,25 kulland\u0131k. Daha y\u00fcksek tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6rne\u011fin, %99 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) daha geni\u015f aral\u0131klara yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmay\u0131n. Tersine, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin, %90&#8217;l\u0131k bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) daha dar bir aral\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0177 <sub>0<\/sub> i\u00e7in tahmin edilen de\u011feri elde etmek i\u00e7in <strong>=FORECAST()<\/strong> form\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc kulland\u0131k ancak <strong>=FORECAST.LINEAR()<\/strong> form\u00fcl\u00fc tam olarak ayn\u0131 de\u011feri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrecektir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130statistikte basit do\u011frusal regresyon , tahmin de\u011fi\u015fkeni x ile yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeni y aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullanabilece\u011fimiz bir tekniktir. Basit bir do\u011frusal regresyon uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, x ile y aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi tan\u0131mlayan ve \u015fu \u015fekilde yaz\u0131labilen bir &#8220;en iyi uyum \u00e7izgisi&#8221; elde ederiz: \u0177 = b 0 + b 1 x Alt\u0131n: \u0177 yan\u0131t de\u011fi\u015fkeninin tahmin edilen [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rehber"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Excel&#039;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#039;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Excel&#039;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#039;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Statorials\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/intervalle_de-prediction1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr.benjamin anderson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/\",\"name\":\"Excel&#39;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\"},\"description\":\"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Ev\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/\",\"name\":\"Statorials\",\"description\":\"\u0130statistik okuryazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rehberiniz!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48\",\"name\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Dr.benjamin anderson\"},\"description\":\"Merhaba, ben Benjamin, emekli bir istatistik profes\u00f6r\u00fc ve Statorials \u00f6\u011fretmenine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. \u0130statistik alan\u0131ndaki kapsaml\u0131 deneyimim ve uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131mla, \u00f6\u011frencilerimi Statorials arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bilgilerimi payla\u015fmaya can at\u0131yorum. Daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bil\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Excel&#39;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials","description":"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/","og_locale":"tr_TR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Excel&#39;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials","og_description":"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.","og_url":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/","og_site_name":"Statorials","article_published_time":"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/intervalle_de-prediction1.png"}],"author":"Dr.benjamin anderson","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Yazan:":"Dr.benjamin anderson","Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi":"2 dakika"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/","url":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/","name":"Excel&#39;de Tahmin Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nas\u0131l Olu\u015fturulur - Statorials","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-29T10:06:39+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48"},"description":"Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m \u00f6rnek kullanarak Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"tr","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-tahmin-araligi\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Ev","item":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Excel&#39;de tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturulur"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#website","url":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/","name":"Statorials","description":"\u0130statistik okuryazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rehberiniz!","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"tr"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/365dc158a39a7c8ae256355451e3de48","name":"Dr.benjamin anderson","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"tr","@id":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Dr.-Benjamin-Anderson-96x96.jpg","caption":"Dr.benjamin anderson"},"description":"Merhaba, ben Benjamin, emekli bir istatistik profes\u00f6r\u00fc ve Statorials \u00f6\u011fretmenine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. \u0130statistik alan\u0131ndaki kapsaml\u0131 deneyimim ve uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131mla, \u00f6\u011frencilerimi Statorials arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in bilgilerimi payla\u015fmaya can at\u0131yorum. Daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bil","sameAs":["https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr"]}]}},"yoast_meta":{"yoast_wpseo_title":"","yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","yoast_wpseo_canonical":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}