{"id":595,"date":"2023-07-29T09:36:52","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-karti\/"},"modified":"2023-07-29T09:36:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T09:36:52","slug":"excel-karti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-karti\/","title":{"rendered":"Excel&#39;de ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131 (mape) nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bir modelin tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in en yayg\u0131n kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerden biri, <strong>ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131<\/strong> anlam\u0131na gelen <strong>MAPE&#8217;dir<\/strong> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE&#8217;yi hesaplamak i\u00e7in form\u00fcl a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibidir:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>MAPE<\/strong> = (1\/n) * \u03a3(|ger\u00e7ek \u2013 tahmin| \/ |ger\u00e7ek|) * 100<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Alt\u0131n:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u03a3<\/strong> \u2013 \u201ctoplam\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen s\u00fcsl\u00fc bir sembol<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>n<\/strong> \u2013 \u00f6rneklem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>ger\u00e7ek<\/strong> \u2013 verilerin ger\u00e7ek de\u011feri<\/span><\/li>\n<li> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>tahmin<\/strong> \u2013 verilerin beklenen de\u011feri<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE, yorumlanmas\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 kolay oldu\u011fundan yayg\u0131n olarak kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin %11,5&#8217;lik bir MAPE de\u011feri, tahmin edilen de\u011fer ile ger\u00e7ek de\u011fer aras\u0131ndaki ortalama fark\u0131n %11,5 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE de\u011feri ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olursa, model de\u011ferleri o kadar iyi tahmin edebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, MAPE&#8217;si %2 olan bir model, MAPE&#8217;si %10 olan bir modelden daha do\u011frudur.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Excel&#8217;de MAPE Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE&#8217;yi Excel&#8217;de hesaplamak i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 uygulayabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Ad\u0131m 1: Ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferleri ve tahmin edilen de\u011ferleri iki ayr\u0131 s\u00fctuna girin.<\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5467 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/mape1.png\" alt=\"Excel'de MAPE Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r?\" width=\"431\" height=\"411\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Ad\u0131m 2: Her sat\u0131r i\u00e7in mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131n\u0131 hesaplay\u0131n.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Mutlak y\u00fczde hatan\u0131n \u015fu \u015fekilde hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlay\u0131n: |ger\u00e7ek-tahmin| \/ |ger\u00e7ek| * 100. Her sat\u0131r\u0131n mutlak hata y\u00fczdesini hesaplamak i\u00e7in bu form\u00fcl\u00fc kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">D s\u00fctunu mutlak hata y\u00fczdesini, E s\u00fctunu ise kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z form\u00fcl\u00fc g\u00f6sterir:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5469 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/mape2-1.png\" alt=\"Excel'de MAPE \u00f6rne\u011fi\" width=\"566\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu form\u00fcl\u00fc her sat\u0131r i\u00e7in tekrarlayaca\u011f\u0131z:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5470 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/mape3.png\" alt=\"Excel hesaplamas\u0131nda MAPE\" width=\"568\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Ad\u0131m 3: Ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131n\u0131 hesaplay\u0131n.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE&#8217;yi, D s\u00fctunundaki de\u011ferlerin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 bularak hesaplay\u0131n:<\/span> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5472 \" src=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/mape4.png\" alt=\"Excel'de MAPE \u00f6rne\u011fi\" width=\"576\" height=\"362\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, \"><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bu modelin MAPE\u2019si <strong>%6,47<\/strong> olarak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>MAPE kullan\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir not<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">MAPE&#8217;nin hesaplanmas\u0131 ve yorumlanmas\u0131 basit olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 potansiyel sak\u0131ncalar\u0131 vard\u0131r:<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>1.<\/strong> Mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131n\u0131 hesaplama form\u00fcl\u00fc |ger\u00e7ek-tahmin| \/ |ger\u00e7ek| bu, ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferlerden herhangi birinin s\u0131f\u0131r olmas\u0131 durumunda ayarlanmayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2.<\/strong> MAPE d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli verilerle kullan\u0131lmamal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek talep 2 ve tahmin 1 ise mutlak y\u00fczde hata de\u011feri |2-1| \/ |2| = %50, bu da tahminde yaln\u0131zca 1 birim sapma olsa bile tahmin hatas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine neden olur.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <em><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Bir modelin tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7menin di\u011fer bir yayg\u0131n yolu MAD&#8217;dir (ortalama mutlak sapma). Excel&#8217;de MAD&#8217;nin nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excelde-ortalama-mutlak-sapmanin-kolayca-nasil-hesaplanacagi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">buradan<\/a> \u00f6\u011frenin.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h3> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Ek kaynaklar<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MAPE i\u00e7in iyi bir de\u011fer olarak kabul edilen \u015fey nedir?<\/a><br \/> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excelde-carpiklik\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Excel&#8217;de SMAPE nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r<\/a><br \/> <a href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/mutlak-hata-excel-anlamina-gelir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Excel&#8217;de MAE nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir modelin tahmin do\u011frulu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in en yayg\u0131n kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerden biri, ortalama mutlak y\u00fczde hatas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen MAPE&#8217;dir . MAPE&#8217;yi hesaplamak i\u00e7in form\u00fcl a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibidir: MAPE = (1\/n) * \u03a3(|ger\u00e7ek \u2013 tahmin| \/ |ger\u00e7ek|) * 100 Alt\u0131n: \u03a3 \u2013 \u201ctoplam\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen s\u00fcsl\u00fc bir sembol n \u2013 \u00f6rneklem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ger\u00e7ek \u2013 verilerin ger\u00e7ek de\u011feri tahmin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rehber"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Excel&#039;de Ortalama Mutlak Y\u00fczde Hata (MAPE) Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r - Statorials<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Excel&#039;de Ortalama Mutlak Y\u00fczde Hatan\u0131n (MAPE) nas\u0131l hesaplanaca\u011f\u0131na dair basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/statorials.org\/tr\/excel-karti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Excel&#039;de Ortalama Mutlak Y\u00fczde Hata (MAPE) Nas\u0131l Hesaplan\u0131r - 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